Cavotec: Soft Q2, but tide to turn in H2'25e - ABG
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Lower sales but demand for shore power solid
Cavotec reported sales of EUR 36m (17% below our estimate) and order intake of EUR 44m (7% above our estimate). The sales shortfall was primarily driven by customer delays in orders with short lead times due increased global uncertainty. Both P&M and Industry contributed to the miss (-18% and -17% vs. ABGSCe). As a result of the lower sales and ramp-up costs ahead of anticipated P&M deliveries in H2’25e, adj. EBIT declined to EUR -0.38m (vs. ABGSCe EUR 3.4m). Moreover, cash flow was also impacted negatively and lease adj. FCF was EUR -1.5m. Despite the lower sales and the uncertain market environment, we find it positive that the P&M order intake was strong, driven by demand for shore power in Europe.
Estimate changes
We lower '25e-'27e sales and EBIT by 4-3% and EUR 7m, respectively, following the soft Q2. We also adopt a more cautious outlook, as we believe customer hesitancy may persist over the coming quarters amid elevated interest rates and tariff concerns. Looking ahead, we expect the large shore power orders, which trickled in during Q4’24 (EUR 60m in order intake) to be delivered in H2’25e/early ’26e, supporting '25e-'26e.
Near-term focus: driving volume growth
While our positive view of Cavotec's long-term outlook remains unchanged, we believe the company’s near-term focus will be on driving volume growth, which we believe is essential for achieving the company’s financial targets of a +10% EBIT margin and +5% sales growth. We expect Cavotec to reach >10% margins from '28e, provided management is successful with its transformation. We expect the company will have more product launches in H2'25e, which according to the company have been well received by customers. The share is trading at 21x-10x '25e-'27e on EV/EBIT.
Cavotec reported sales of EUR 36m (17% below our estimate) and order intake of EUR 44m (7% above our estimate). The sales shortfall was primarily driven by customer delays in orders with short lead times due increased global uncertainty. Both P&M and Industry contributed to the miss (-18% and -17% vs. ABGSCe). As a result of the lower sales and ramp-up costs ahead of anticipated P&M deliveries in H2’25e, adj. EBIT declined to EUR -0.38m (vs. ABGSCe EUR 3.4m). Moreover, cash flow was also impacted negatively and lease adj. FCF was EUR -1.5m. Despite the lower sales and the uncertain market environment, we find it positive that the P&M order intake was strong, driven by demand for shore power in Europe.
Estimate changes
We lower '25e-'27e sales and EBIT by 4-3% and EUR 7m, respectively, following the soft Q2. We also adopt a more cautious outlook, as we believe customer hesitancy may persist over the coming quarters amid elevated interest rates and tariff concerns. Looking ahead, we expect the large shore power orders, which trickled in during Q4’24 (EUR 60m in order intake) to be delivered in H2’25e/early ’26e, supporting '25e-'26e.
Near-term focus: driving volume growth
While our positive view of Cavotec's long-term outlook remains unchanged, we believe the company’s near-term focus will be on driving volume growth, which we believe is essential for achieving the company’s financial targets of a +10% EBIT margin and +5% sales growth. We expect Cavotec to reach >10% margins from '28e, provided management is successful with its transformation. We expect the company will have more product launches in H2'25e, which according to the company have been well received by customers. The share is trading at 21x-10x '25e-'27e on EV/EBIT.