Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/16/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

Aktia Bank will publish its Q2 interim report on Thursday, July 30. We expect earnings to have increased significantly year-on-year, but this is explained by a one-off gain resulting from an update to credit risk models. Adjusted for this, we expect earnings roughly at the level of the comparison period. We expect credit demand to have remained modest, whereas our expectations for new sales in asset management are clearly more optimistic. The launch and outlook of new international distribution channels are among the most interesting themes on the earnings day.

Credit demand is still not getting support from the market

We expect Aktia's operating income to have been at the level of the comparison period. Net interest income is still declining in our forecasts due to the impact of falling interest rates, but we expect the negative trend to have already ended on a quarterly basis. This is one of the interesting data points in the Q2 report. In any case, we estimate that net interest income will turn to growth in the coming quarters at the latest.

Based on the Bank of Finland's statistics, loan demand in Finland has continued to be twofold. Mortgage demand has remained subdued, while the development in corporate loans has been better. However, corporate loan demand has also slowed down somewhat during the current year. Thus, the development of Aktia's loan book largely depends on market share growth. In recent years, the company has succeeded in strengthening its position, particularly in corporate leasing, hire purchase, and invoice financing. We expect Aktia's loan book to have grown moderately compared to the previous quarter due to this.

In contrast, we expect net commission income to have grown from the comparison period, supported by higher assets under management. For Asset Management, we estimate that Q2 went well, similar to the beginning of the year, and positive market development supports the growth of assets under management in our forecasts. The development of new sales in asset management, especially to international clients, is one of the key areas of interest on the earnings day, as the company has entered into several new distribution partnerships during the first half of the year.

A one-off gain supports the quarter's earnings

Aktia's comparable Q2 EBIT is expected to grow by over 30% from the comparison period in our forecasts. However, this is explained by a one-off gain that the company will record in connection with the adoption of its new credit risk model. The model update reduces Aktia's credit loss provisions, and the company estimates the impact on earnings to be 7–10 MEUR. Thanks to the one-off, our credit loss forecast is exceptionally positive. Adjusted for this, we expect earnings roughly at the level of the comparison period.

We expect Aktia's credit losses, adjusted for non-recurring income, to have been around 0.11% of the loan book (2.2 MEUR). This would imply a clear decrease from the comparison period, which was burdened by individual larger write-downs from the real estate sector. Despite nascent positive signs, the economic outlook has remained cloudy, but we estimate Aktia's loan book risk profile to be very moderate. We expect the comparable operating cost level to have continued its moderate growth, mainly driven by IT-related expenses.

We do not expect changes in guidance

Aktia has guided that its comparable operating profit for 2026 will be approximately at the same level as in 2025 (106.0 MEUR). We expect the company to reiterate this guidance in conjunction with the Q2 report. We expect actual earnings growth to begin in 2027, when the rise in interest rates will more clearly support net interest income. The recovery in volume development, especially on the personal customer side, is more strongly linked to general economic development. Although there are nascent signs of recovery in the Finnish economy, the outlook remains dim due to factors such as geopolitical tensions. Asset Management, on the other hand, has the potential to support earnings development if Aktia's new sales continue to pick up as in previous quarters. We find the new international distribution partnerships particularly interesting, as Aktia aims to use them to turn around its institutional sales, which have performed poorly in recent years. It would be important to get support for net subscriptions from these, as the ambitious growth targets for the strategy period require excellent success in new sales. However, sales cycles can be long, so the company is unlikely to receive significant support from these this year.

We expect Aktia's capital adequacy to have weakened from the level at the end of the previous quarter, as the company has stated that updates to its credit risk models will increase its risk-weighted assets.