Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/25/2026 at 9:06 pm EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Aktia will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 30. We expect the comparable result to have decreased slightly from the comparison period due to increased costs from growth investments. On earnings day, we will particularly focus on the continuation of the turnaround in net interest income, the development of loan demand, and the momentum in new sales in asset management.

Turnaround in net interest income progressing

We expect Aktia's operating income of 74.1 MEUR in Q3 to have remained roughly in line with the comparison period. Although we estimate that net interest income will still decline year-on-year, on a quarterly basis, we expect the growth that began in Q2 to continue, supported by rising market interest rates. However, we estimate that growth in net interest income still remains moderate and will be weighted more heavily toward future quarters. At the same time, subdued loan demand from retail customers continues to hinder the growth of Aktia's loan book in our forecasts. Housing transactions in Finland have not yet shown significant signs of revival, so our focus regarding credit demand is on developments on the corporate side. Over the past year, Aktia has been able to offset the weakness in private customers particularly with leasing, factoring, and hire purchase products. Overall, we estimate that the loan book shrank a little from the previous quarter.

We expect Aktia's net commission income to have grown to 32.7 MEUR (31.2 MEUR), driven by record-high assets under management in asset management. We expect asset management net sales (subscriptions − redemptions) to have slowed down clearly from the strong levels of previous quarters, while still remaining in positive territory. We estimate that the increased uncertainty in the interest rate market has kept customers cautious, especially towards the end of the quarter. Additionally, Q3 is typically seasonally quieter in asset management due to the holiday season.

We estimate that costs have risen as a result of investments in growth

We estimate that Aktia's comparable EBIT settled at 26.6 MEUR, slightly below the comparison period. This is particularly due to higher IT costs. In addition, we estimate that the growth investments in asset management will raise the operational cost level as well. We expect credit losses to have remained moderate (0.13% of the loan book), though higher than historical averages. In our view, Aktia's risk profile is quite moderate, and non-performing loans should not cause any surprises. Our earnings per share forecast is EUR 0.27.

Asset management sales trends and outlook take center stage

In addition to the financial figures, the key focus of the earnings day will be on the development of new sales in asset management. In the early part of the year, Aktia's net subscriptions were over 600 MEUR positive, and Q2 was already the fifth consecutive quarter with positive new sales. Updates on the development of international sales will be under particular scrutiny after Aktia announced several new distribution partners for the European market earlier this year.

Aktia last updated its earnings guidance for the current year in connection with its Q2 report and now expects comparable EBIT for 2026 to be approximately at the same level or slightly higher than the previous year's 106 MEUR. After a strong start to the year, we believe the guidance still appears cautious, as it allows for a clear decline in earnings during the remainder of the year. We consider it very possible that Aktia will nominally revise its guidance upwards again in connection with the Q3 report. Our current estimates project a growth rate of around 8% for comparable earnings.