Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/20/2026 at 7:15 am EET.

Aktia announced on Thursday that updates to the internal ratings-based (IRB) models used in its calculation of capital adequacy will reduce the bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by an estimated one percentage point. While the change was known in advance, its negative impact was greater than we had anticipated. This news has no impact on our earnings forecasts, but it will initially put downward pressure on our dividend forecasts for the coming years.

Impact of model update was greater than expected

The Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority’s preliminary approval of Aktia’s IRB models includes capital requirement add-ons that will increase the bank’s risk-weighted assets. Aktia had previously indicated that the model update would negatively impact capital adequacy, but the negative impact of approximately one percentage point that has now been reported was greater than we had estimated. Aktia’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 12.6% at the end of 2025, so we estimate that the model update will reduce it to around 11.6% from Q2'26 onwards. The bank’s target is to maintain a CET1 ratio that is 2–4 percentage points higher than the regulatory requirement (8.8%), so Aktia will remain well within its target range.

Dividend forecasts are under downward pressure

We had previously expected Aktia to be able to distribute around 80% of its annual earnings as dividends in the coming years, ensuring that its capital adequacy would not exceed the upper limit of the target range unnecessarily. However, the reported increase in risk-weighted assets is eroding a significant portion of the bank’s excess capital, thereby reducing its flexibility in terms of profit distribution. The company has previously stated that, under normal circumstances, its capital adequacy buffer relative to the regulatory requirement should be closer to the upper end of the range, i.e., around 4%. However, following the model update, capital adequacy is already approaching the midpoint of the range, resulting in initial downward pressure on our profit distribution forecasts for the coming years. Much depends on how quickly the company’s board plans to improve its capital adequacy, though, as there is no real urgency given the fairly stable earnings outlook and what we consider to be a moderate risk level in the loan portfolio.