Analyst Comment
Anora Group Q1'26 flash comment: Volume decline pushed earnings below expectations
By Rauli Juva
Summary
- Anora's Q1 revenue and earnings fell significantly short of expectations, with revenue declining by 4% to 136 MEUR, primarily due to a sharp decrease in the Wine segment and weaker-than-expected sales in the Spirits segment.
- Despite the revenue decline, adjusted EBITDA improved slightly from the previous year to 8.8 MEUR, supported by cost-saving measures and improved operational efficiency, although it still fell short of the 11.4 MEUR expectation.
- The company reiterated its full-year earnings guidance, but the weak start to the year and ongoing structural challenges in alcohol consumption create downward pressure on estimates, with inflationary pressures further complicating cost management.
- Anora's cash flow improved significantly from the comparison period due to better working capital management, reducing net debt/adj. EBITDA to 2.1x from 3.1x.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 05/06/2026 at 09:15 am EEST
| Estimates | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | Q1'26e | Q1'26e | Difference (%) | 2026e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 141 | 136 | 143 | 140 | -5 % | 649 | |
| EBITDA (adj.) | 8.0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 10.7 | -23 % | 71.0 | |
| EBITDA | 8.9 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 10.3 | -29 % | 68.0 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | -55 % | 44.2 | |
| EBIT | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | -44 % | 41.2 | |
| EPS (rep.) | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -247 % | 0.30 | |
| Revenue growth-% | -3.7 % | -4.0 % | 1,.1 % | -0.8 % | -5.1 pp | -1.4 % | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 0.6 % | 1.5 % | 3.3 % | 2.8 % | -1.7 pp | 6.8 % | |
Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)
Anora's Q1 report fell significantly short of our expectations in terms of both revenue and earnings, even though earnings improved slightly from the comparison period. The expected tailwind from the timing of Easter was not enough to turn revenue to growth, as other negative drivers especially weighed on the Wine segment, leading to a sharp decline. Efficiency measures supported earnings, which improved slightly despite a significant decline in revenue. The company reiterated its full-year earnings guidance, but the soft start to the year creates downward pressure on our estimates.
A clear decrease in the Wine segment led to a deeper-than-expected decline in revenue
The 4% decrease in revenue to 136 MEUR was clearly below our growth estimate of 143 MEUR, which had anticipated slight growth. We expected the timing of Easter to support Q1 sales volumes, but structural headwinds weighed on the company's volumes more heavily than we assumed. The disappointing revenue is mainly explained by lower campaign volumes in the Wine segment in Denmark and previously lost volumes in bottling services. The latter was known, but the Wine segment's revenue decreased by over 10%, while we had expected it to be at the comparison period's level. In the Spirits segment, weaker monopoly market volumes and revisions in the principal portfolio last year also impacted sales more than we expected. The company reports that the entire Nordic market decreased by 1% in Q1 despite the positive impact of Easter.
Cost-saving measures supported margins as volumes decreased
Anora's adjusted EBITDA settled at 8.8 MEUR, clearly falling short of our 11.4 MEUR expectation, but still exceeding the comparison period's 8.0 MEUR level. The revenue contraction caused by volume pressures explains the disappointing result, even though the company's operational efficiency measures supported the margin. The gross margin improved to 46.7%, and the implemented organizational changes successfully decreased personnel costs. Despite improved margins, absolute earnings development remained weak due to headwinds in sales volumes. The company's cash flow was seasonally negative but improved significantly from the comparison period due to better working capital management. This also helped decrease net debt/adj. EBITDA to 2.1x from 3.1x in the comparison period.
The repeated guidance is starting to look challenging
Anora reiterated its guidance for the current year as expected, and the company still anticipates that "in 2026, Anora's comparable EBITDA is expected to be 74-79 MEUR." Our full-year estimate prior to the report was at the lower end of the guidance range at 73.6 MEUR. The company estimates that alcohol consumption will continue to be structurally challenging, with volume pressure lasting throughout the year. Although the first quarter is seasonally the smallest for the company, earnings, which were clearly below our expectations, create downward pressure on our full-year estimates. This is highlighted by inflationary pressures caused by rising energy prices, for example, on logistics and packaging costs, which the company finds difficult to pass on to sales prices this year due to rigid pricing models. We assume that the company has to rely more heavily on cost savings and margin protection during the rest of the year to respond to inflationary pressures as volumes decline.
Anora Group is a producer of alcoholic beverages. The product portfolio consists of wine and spirits marketed under various brands. The largest operations are found in the Nordics and the Baltics, and the company's products are exported to retailers in Europe and North America. The company was created through a merger of Altia and Arcus in 2021 and has its headquarters in Helsinki.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures09/04
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 657.9 | 656.0 | 653.9 |
| growth-% | -4.9 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 43.9 | 46.8 | 50.9 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 6.7 % | 7.1 % | 7.8 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| Dividend | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Dividend % | 6.2 % | 7.6 % | 8.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 11.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
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