Analyst Comment
Anora Group Q1'26 preview: Efficiency measures and Easter are expected to drive earnings improvement
By Rauli Juva
Summary
- Anora's Q1 revenue is expected to grow slightly to 143 MEUR, driven by the favorable timing of Easter, despite a challenging market environment in the Nordic countries.
- Efficiency measures, including personnel cost savings, are anticipated to significantly improve adjusted EBITDA to 11 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to 4.7 MEUR, although Q1 remains a seasonally weak quarter.
- Inflationary pressures, particularly from rising energy and packaging costs, pose challenges to Anora's full-year guidance, with the company's estimate at the lower end of the 74–79 MEUR adjusted EBITDA range.
- The company is expected to maintain its full-year guidance, contingent on Q1 results aligning with estimates, despite difficulties in passing increased costs to prices in monopoly markets.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 05/04/2026 at 07:00 am EEST
| Estimates | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | Q1'26e | Q1'26e | 2026e | |
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 141 | 143 | 140 | 656 | ||
| EBITDA (adj.) | 8.0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 73.6 | ||
| EBITDA | 8.9 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 70.6 | ||
| EBIT (adj.) | 1.2 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 46.8 | ||
| EBIT | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 43.8 | ||
| EPS (rep.) | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.33 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -3.7 % | 1.1 % | -0.8 % | -0.3 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 0.8 % | 3.3 % | 2.8 % | 7.1 % |
Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)
Anora publishes its Q1 report on Wednesday, May 6. We expect the company's revenue to have grown slightly from the comparison period, supported by the favorable timing of Easter. We estimate that profitability improved significantly due to efficiency measures and a weak comparison period, even though Q1 is seasonally the company's weakest quarter. We expect the company to reiterate its full-year guidance, although due to accelerated cost inflation, our estimate is at the lower end of that guidance.
The timing of Easter supports revenue
We estimate that Anora's revenue will increase to 143 MEUR in Q1 (Q1'25: 141 MEUR). We believe the growth is primarily explained by the timing of Easter, which shifts sales volume to the first quarter. Particularly, the Norwegian market grew in Q1, supported by the timing of Easter, but Finland decreased despite this, and Sweden was roughly at the comparison period's level. At the segment level, we expect the Wine segment's revenue to have been at the comparison period's level of 65 MEUR, while we estimate the Spirits segment to have decreased to 44 MEUR (Q1'25: 45 MEUR) due to, e.g., continuous volume pressure in Finland. We expect the Wine segment's market share growth to have continued in Sweden, but this is balanced by our estimate of a further decrease in bottling service volumes in Denmark. We expect the Industrial segment's revenue to have grown to 55 MEUR (Q1'25: 51 MEUR). The general market situation has remained structurally challenging, and the downward trend in alcoholic beverage consumption continues to put pressure on the company's volumes in the Nordic countries.
Efficiency measures drive earnings improvement
We estimate that the adjusted EBITDA will increase to 11 MEUR (Q1'25: 8 MEUR) and the adjusted EBIT will improve to 4.7 MEUR (Q1'25: 1.2 MEUR). We estimate that earnings will be supported particularly by the annual personnel cost savings of around 7 MEUR implemented at the end of 2025, as well as the progress of the broader efficiency program. We note, however, that Q1 is seasonally very small in Anora's business, so the earnings improvement for the quarter is still moderate in absolute terms. We expect one-off items from Anora's efficiency measures to impact earnings, keeping reported net profit negative, similar to the comparison period.
Inflationary pressures challenge guidance
Anora has guided that the adjusted EBITDA for the current year will be 74–79 MEUR (2025: 71 MEUR). Our full-year estimate is 74 MEUR, which corresponds to the lower end of the guidance range. We believe inflationary pressures, such as rising energy and packaging material costs, will affect the company starting from the second quarter. The company finds it difficult to immediately pass on increased costs to prices due to the rigid pricing model of monopoly markets However, if the company improves its Q1 result in line with our estimate, we expect the company to reiterate its full-year guidance.
Anora Group is a producer of alcoholic beverages. The product portfolio consists of wine and spirits marketed under various brands. The largest operations are found in the Nordics and the Baltics, and the company's products are exported to retailers in Europe and North America. The company was created through a merger of Altia and Arcus in 2021 and has its headquarters in Helsinki.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures09/04
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 657.9 | 656.0 | 653.9 |
| growth-% | -4.9 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 43.9 | 46.8 | 50.9 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 6.7 % | 7.1 % | 7.8 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| Dividend | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Dividend % | 6.2 % | 7.6 % | 8.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 11.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
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