Anora Group Q2'26 preview: Efficiency measures defend earnings in a subdued market
Summary
- Anora's Q2 revenue is expected to decrease to 157 MEUR from 165 MEUR in Q2'25, due to weak market conditions and the timing of Easter deliveries.
- Adjusted EBIT is anticipated to remain at 7.3 MEUR, supported by efficiency measures despite volume declines, while adjusted EBITDA is forecasted at 13.0 MEUR.
- Cost inflation, particularly in logistics and packaging, continues to pose challenges, with Anora struggling to pass increased costs onto prices due to rigid pricing mechanisms.
- Anora's full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast of 72 MEUR is below the company's guidance range of 74–79 MEUR, indicating potential downward pressure on earnings guidance.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/12/2026 at 7:10 am EEST.
| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | 2026e | |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 165 | 157 | 160 | 639 | ||
| EBITDA (adj.) | 14.1 | 14 | 15.1 | 72.3 | ||
| EBITDA | 13.5 | 13 | 14.9 | 69.2 | ||
| EBIT (adj.) | 7.3 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 45.4 | ||
| EBIT | 6.7 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 42.3 | ||
| EPS (reported) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.32 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -6.60% | -5.10% | -3.00% | -2.80% | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 4.40% | 4.60% | 5.20% | 7.10% |
Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 4 analysts (consensus)
Anora will publish its Q2 report on Friday, August 14. We expect the company's revenue to have decreased year-on-year owing to weak market development and the timing of Easter. We estimate that adjusted EBIT remained at the level of the comparison period, with efficiency measures supporting profitability despite a decline in volumes. There is a clear risk to the full-year earnings guidance in our view, as our current-year estimate is below the guidance range.
Weak market and timing of Easter weigh on revenue
We forecast Anora's revenue to decrease to 157 MEUR in Q2 (Q2'25: 165 MEUR). We estimate the decrease in revenue to be due to sluggish alcohol market development in main markets and the timing of Easter deliveries to the first quarter. Market volumes for wines and spirits, which are significant for Anora, declined during the quarter in the company's main markets, which is reflected in our expectations for sales in both beverage segments. In addition, we estimate that the Wine segment's revenue will be weighed down by lower volumes from Danish bottling services. Likewise, we expect a decline in the Spirits segment due to volume pressures and the loss of partners. Anora's competitor, Viva Wine, also reported a decline in organic revenue in Q2, which reinforces the picture of a challenging market environment. We expect the Industrial segment's revenue to have remained roughly at the level of the comparison period.
Efficiency measures defend earnings amid volume headwinds
We expect Anora's adjusted EBIT to have remained at the comparison period level of 7.3 MEUR in Q2, which corresponds to a slight improvement in relative profitability. We predict that the adjusted EBITDA settled at 13.0 MEUR (Q2'25: 13.5 MEUR). According to our estimates, this result is supported, in particular, by personnel savings implemented at the end of 2025 and progress made on a broader efficiency improvement program. These measures will help offset the pressure on earnings caused by the decline in volume. On the other hand, we expect cost inflation, such as rising logistics and packaging costs, to continue causing headwinds. Competitor Viva Wine also mentioned increased freight costs in its report. Although the decrease in oil prices from spring levels has eased inflationary pressures, it is difficult for Anora to quickly pass increased costs on to prices. This is due to the rigid pricing mechanisms of monopoly markets.
Earnings guidance is under downward pressure
Anora has guided that the comparable EBITDA for the current year will be 74–79 MEUR. Our current forecast for full-year adjusted EBITDA is 72 MEUR, which is below the company’s guidance range. Due to weak market development and cost pressures in the first half of the year, we see downward pressure on the guidance. The end of the year, particularly Q4, are the most important quarters for Anora seasonally. Therefore, the company may well reiterate its guidance, even if the result is in line with our expectations. In the Q2 report, we will pay particular attention to the company's comments on the progress of efficiency measures and its ability to respond to cost inflation.