Anora Group Q4'25 preview: Guidance appears to hold, earnings improvement ahead

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/09/2026 at 07:00 am EET

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Anora publishes its 2025 financial statements release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. We expect the company's revenue to have decreased slightly from the comparison period due to the continued weak market situation, but earnings to improve, supported by efficiency measures. Anora's full-year 2025 guidance range for adjusted EBITDA (70-75 MEUR) is quite tight. Our estimate (70.4 MEUR) is at the bottom of the range, and reaching it requires an earnings improvement in the most important quarter of the year. In the report, our attention is particularly drawn to the guidance for 2026.

Revenue is falling due to a weak market

In Q4, we expect Anora's revenue to have decreased by 2% to 200 MEUR (Q4'24: 205 MEUR). The market situation has remained challenging, as market figures published in Finland, Sweden, and Norway indicate that the downward trend in volumes continued in the latter part of the year. In the Wine segment, revenue continues to be weighed down by our estimated decrease in bottling services, even though the company has been able to continue its positive market share development in wines in Sweden.

We expect earnings to have improved, driven by efficiency measures

We expect Anora’s adjusted EBITDA to increase to 30 MEUR in Q4 from 29 MEUR in the comparison period. The result is supported by the company's strong cost management and previously initiated efficiency measures. Seasonally, Q4 is clearly the company's most important earnings quarter. If our estimate materializes, it would mean that the company reaches the lower end of its full-year guidance range of 70-75 MEUR. Since the company has not issued a profit warning, it should hit the guidance range. At the segment level, we expect the main segments' earnings to be largely in line with the comparison period, with a small improvement coming mainly from the "Other" segment.

Eyes on 2026 guidance and progress in savings

In connection with the financial statements, Anora will provide guidance for 2026. We believe the company will guide for an adjusted EBITDA in the range of 70-80 MEUR or 75-80 MEUR. The result in 2026 will be particularly supported by personnel savings, which were implemented at the end of 2025 and have an annual impact of around 7 MEUR. The company's new medium-term targets, published in November 2025, aim for an adjusted EBITDA of 85-90 MEUR by 2028, which requires an annual earnings improvement of around 5 MEUR in the coming years. In the report, we look for comments on the development of the market situation, as we believe that the volume growth outlook for the alcohol markets remains sluggish.

We expect the company to propose a dividend of EUR 0.22, similar to the comparison period, which would correspond to a payout ratio of around 75% of our estimated earnings.