Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/11/2026 at 09:20 am EET

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 5 analysts (consensus)

Anora’s Q4 result was largely in line with our estimates, even though revenue was subdued. The company guides for this year's adjusted EBITDA to be 74-79 MEUR, which is in line with the development required by the 2028 target. Our estimate is at the lower end of the range, but we note that Anora's guidance in recent years has been rather too optimistic.

Revenue fell clearly more than we expected in the beverage segments

Anora’s revenue decreased by 5% in Q4, while we expected a 3% drop. As we estimated, there was a decrease in the beverage segments, but the decrease in both was greater than we expected. In the Wine segment, the decrease was as much as 9%, which the company said was mainly due to the expected decrease in bottling services and weaker volumes in Finland. In Sweden, the positive market share development for wines continued. In the Spirits segment, on the other hand, the company's market shares continued declining in the main markets of Finland and Norway. The segment's revenue decreased by 4.5%, while we expected 3%. Industrial segment's revenue grew by 4% in line with our estimate.

Earnings were broadly in line with our expectations, with numerous non-recurring items in the figures

Despite weaker-than-expected revenue development, Anora was able to improve its adjusted EBITDA to 31 MEUR, slightly more than our estimate. The Wine segment's earnings weakened slightly year-on-year and were roughly in line with our expectations, but Spirits improved its earnings by 2 MEUR from the comparison period and exceeded our estimate. The Industrial segment also slightly exceeded our estimate. Gross margins exceeded our estimates in all segments, which was partly offset by higher fixed costs than we expected. The reported result was clearly weaker than our expectations, as the company recorded one-off items related to the efficiency program, write-downs of inventories in the Wine segment, and write-downs of trademarks in the Spirits segment. 

Full-year adjusted EBITDA was 71 MEUR, thus falling into the lower end of the 70-75 MEUR guidance range, which was maintained throughout the year. 

Guidance, as expected, promises improvement this year

Anora guides adjusted EBITDA of 74-79 MEUR for 2026. The company's new medium-term targets, published in November 2025, aim for an adjusted EBITDA of 85-90 MEUR by 2028, which requires an annual earnings improvement of around 5 MEUR in the coming years. The guidance is in line with this. Our estimate for this year is 74 MEUR, so there is slight upward pressure on it. However, we note that Anora has issued profit warnings several times in recent years and ended up at the lower end of its guidance last year. Regarding the market outlook, the company states that the market will remain "structurally challenging" and that volume pressure will continue in 2026 and beyond. This is expected, and the medium-term targets assume a market decrease. 

The company proposes a dividend of EUR 0.24, a small increase from EUR 0.22 in the comparison period. The company's net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 1.4x at the end of the year, compared to 1.8x in the comparison period. Gearing was slightly lower than we expected, but it is worth noting that the balance sheet situation is seasonally strongest at the end of the year.