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Analyst Comment

ASML Investor Day: Company's strong long-term growth prospects create significant opportunities for Canatu

By Atte RiikolaAnalyst
Canatu

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/15/2024 at 7:13 am EET.

ASML, which in practice holds a monopoly position in EUV lithography machines, held an investor day yesterday where the company outlined its long-term growth targets and the drivers behind them. In the big picture, ASML's comments suggest that the strong long-term growth outlook for the semiconductor sector as a whole and for the company's markets remains unchanged, which also provides significant growth opportunities for Canatu, listed on Nasdaq Helsinki in the fall. 

ASML continues to pursue vigorous growth by 2030

ASML aims to achieve revenue of 44-60 BNEUR by 2030, with a gross margin of 56-60%. Compared to the 2024 guidance (28 BNEUR and 50.6%), this would mean an average increase in revenue of 8-14% and an increase in gross margin of 10-17% over the next 6 years. A key driver behind this development is the strong growth in investment in artificial intelligence, which is boosting demand for increasingly advanced semiconductors (e.g. advanced logic and memory chips). Their production requires chip manufacturers to order more and more EUV lithography machines with higher sophistication from ASML to meet the demand.

Overall, the semiconductor market is expected to grow to more than 1,000 BNUSD by 2030, representing an annual growth rate of around 9%.

New system deliveries from ASML create growth market for Canatu in the coming years

The key aspect of Canatu's growth in the coming years is specifically the introduction of the latest EUV lithography machines in the semiconductor industry. The use of these requires EUV pellicle membranes that protect the photomask in the production process, which can be made from Canatu's CNT. The characteristics of CNTs produced using Canatu’s patented method seem to be better suited for this purpose than competitors' products, which gives the company an attractive starting point to pursue a significant position in this market.

ASML already commented in its Q3 report that customer demand for Low NA systems is shifting towards the newer NXE:3800E systems. This system generation is the first where the power of EUV systems reaches a level (500W) where the properties of Canatu's carbon nanotubes pellicle membranes are clearly improved compared to traditional composite membranes that cannot properly withstand the higher heat load and mechanical stress.

Canatu is a technology company active in deep technology that creates carbon nanotubes (Canatu CNT), related products and manufacturing equipment for the semiconductor, automotive and medical diagnostics industries. The company operates through two business models, firstly using their own reactors to develop and manufacture CNT products. Second, the company sells its CNT reactors and licenses its related technology, allowing customers to produce the products themselves under a limited license.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures2024-10-21

202324e25e
Revenue13.622.730.3
growth-%62.1 %66.8 %33.6 %
EBIT (adj.)-0.6-3.4-2.4
EBIT-% (adj.)-4.7 %-15.1 %-7.9 %
EPS (adj.)-0.04-0.09-0.04
Dividend0.000.000.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)neg.neg.neg.
EV/EBITDA844.0neg.neg.

Forum discussions

Important note. However, it’s still unclear to me whether the relative growth rate is relative to the growth rate of the entire company, or ...
46 minutes ago
by Seeras
0
It’s important to note here that we’re talking about relative growth rates, i.e., growth percentages. The relative shares of these businesses...
1 hour ago
by Atte Riikola
7
An interesting perspective, especially with a relatively short horizon, that from 2030 onwards, most of the growth will come from medical diagnostics...
1 hour ago
by Seeras
1
I’ve been reading through the materials. It was, once again, confusing text, with real strategic thinking mixed in with flowery language. But...
8 hours ago
by mardib
6
Published a quarter of an hour ago, as a preview of tomorrow’s CMD: Canatu Canatu päivittää strategiansa sekä pitkän aikavälin taloudelliset...
13 hours ago
by Koala
27
As Tj. Juha Kokkonen revealed in the earnings call a couple of weeks ago, Canatu’s pellicles will also be used in standard EUV.
yesterday
by Pandakarhu
2
Unfortunately, it seems there are no High-NA (high numerical aperture) tools included at all. Following the same cautious approach as TSMC. ...
yesterday
by Kroisos Pennonen
0
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