Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/15/2026 at 9:05 am EEST.

ASML, which has a virtual monopoly on EUV lithography machines, reported its Q2 results on Wednesday, which clearly exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue, gross margin, and EPS. The company also significantly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and announced plans to increase its EUV capacity by some 30% in 2027, with a potential additional 30% in 2028. From Canatu's perspective, the report is positive, as the accelerated adoption of the most advanced EUV systems is the key driver for the demand for the company's carbon nanotube pellicles.

Q2 results exceeded expectations across all key metrics

ASML's Q2 revenue was 9.3 BEUR, clearly exceeding both the analyst consensus estimate (8.8 BEUR) and the company's own guidance range (8.4-9.0 BEUR). Gross margin was 54.0%, while the consensus expectation was 52.0%. EPS was EUR 7.59, clearly exceeding the consensus estimate of EUR 6.9. The beat was primarily driven by stronger-than-expected installed base business (services and upgrades). In the current demand environment, customers are maximizing the productivity of their equipment, and a significant portion of upgrades are software-based, which also supports the gross margin.

The Q3 revenue guidance (11.0-12.0 BEUR) significantly exceeded the consensus estimate (10.3 BEUR). At the same time, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to 43-45 BEUR (was 36-40 BEUR) and expects the gross margin to be 54-56%. This is a significant upward revision to guidance, driven by demand from AI investments and accelerating capacity expansions by customers. Before the report, the consensus estimate for this year was for revenue of ~39.6 BEUR and a gross margin of about 52-53%. ASML expects its advanced logic revenue to grow by ~25% this year and its memory revenue by ~75%. The company expects its EUV business to grow by ~45%, driven by deliveries of 65 Low NA EUV systems, and its installed base business to grow by over 30%.

EUV capacity will be aggressively increased in 2027–2028

The most interesting aspect of the report was ASML's long-term demand outlook. The exceptional visibility provided by customers' own long-term agreements has translated into a very strong order flow in the early part of the year. The company has already secured nearly all orders for 2027 EUV deliveries and a significant number of orders for 2028. As a result, ASML is increasing its Low NA EUV capacity by ~30% for 2027 (from the current level of about 65 systems) and is exploring a similar 30% increase for 2028. DUV immersion capacity (~130 units) is also planned to increase by 30% in 2027 and potentially further in 2028. In addition, High NA EUV achieved a significant milestone when Intel announced it would be the first to use the technology in mass production for its most advanced products (selected layers of the 18A process).

ASML's accelerating EUV deliveries are expanding Canatu's target market

ASML's latest EUV systems, with power exceeding 600 watts, are particularly interesting from Canatu's perspective. The use of these devices requires EUV pellicles that protect the photomask in the production process, which can be made from Canatu's CNT. In systems above 600 watts, the properties of Canatu's CNT pellicles are clearly superior to traditional composite membranes, which can no longer properly withstand higher thermal loads and mechanical stress. The characteristics of CNTs produced using Canatu’s patented method seem to be better suited for this purpose than competitors' products, which gives the company an attractive starting point to pursue a significant position in this market.

The message from the Q2 report further supports this view: ASML's planned EUV capacity expansions for 2027–2028 fall precisely within the window when we expect demand for EUV pellicles to begin growing strongly. The more and more efficient EUV systems are delivered to customers, the larger Canatu's target market becomes. The progression of High NA technology to mass production also indicates the advancement of the most sophisticated EUV lithography. In line with Canatu's targets, we expect pellicle volumes to grow to a significant scale during 2029–2030.