ASML's Q3 orders were a positive surprise, as were comments on next year's growth
Summary
- ASML's Q3 orders exceeded expectations, with orders totaling 5.4 BNEUR, surpassing the anticipated 4.9 BNEUR, driven by strong demand for EUV equipment.
- The company reported Q3 revenue of 7.5 BNEUR, slightly below the consensus estimate, but EBIT aligned with forecasts at 2.47 BNEUR.
- ASML projects a 15% revenue growth for the full year, with a strong Q4 expected, and anticipates further growth in 2026, driven by AI investments despite a forecasted decline in China's revenue.
- Canatu sees growth potential in supplying carbon nanotube pellicles for ASML's advanced EUV systems, which outperform traditional materials under high thermal and mechanical stress.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/15/2025 at 09:58 am EEST
ASML, which has a virtual monopoly on EUV lithography machines, reported its Q3 results on Wednesday, which exceeded analyst expectations in terms of orders. The outlook comments anticipating growth for 2026 are also a positive signal, as the company's comments regarding 2026 have previously been more uncertain. The growth in AI investments is creating a growing demand for ASML's most advanced equipment, even though demand for older generation technology in China is expected to decrease next year. From Canatu's point of view, the growth in demand for the most advanced devices is key, as they will require the company's pellicles made from carbon nanotubes.
Q3 earnings in line with expectations, orders received slightly better
ASML’s Q3 revenue (7.5 BNEUR) remained approximately stable year-on-year and was slightly below analysts' consensus estimate (7.7 BNEUR). Q3 EBIT was 2.47 BNEUR and was in practice in line with the consensus forecast. However, the orders received in the quarter (5.4 BNEUR) were better than expected (4.9 BNEUR). Of the orders, 3.6 billion are for EUV equipment.
The company expects revenue to grow in 2026
In its outlook, ASML expects Q4 revenue to be 9.2–9.8 BNEUR and the full year revenue to grow by approximately 15%. The company expects the gross margin to be around 52% for the whole year. The company thus expects Q4 to be a strong quarter in terms of revenue.
The company's comments concerning 2026 expect revenue growth compared to this year, with more information to be provided in January. According to the company, AI investments continue to be a key demand driver, and as a result, demand for the company's latest EUV equipment is growing. At the same time, however, the company expects China's revenue to decrease in 2026, as business in this region has been exceptionally strong in 2024-2025. Due to the geopolitical situation, ASML is not supplying the most advanced EUV equipment to China, but rather older technology.
New system deliveries from ASML create a growth market for Canatu in the coming years
ASML's latest EUV systems, with power exceeding 500 watts, are particularly interesting from Canatu's perspective. The use of these devices requires EUV pellicle membranes that protect the photomask in the production process, which can be made from Canatu's CNT. The characteristics of CNTs produced using Canatu’s patented method seem to be better suited for this purpose than competitors' products, which gives the company an attractive starting point to pursue a significant position in this market. In systems above 500 watts, the properties of Canatu's carbon nanotube pellicle membranes are clearly superior to traditional composite membranes, which can no longer properly withstand higher thermal loads and mechanical stress.
Canatu is a technology company active in deep technology that creates carbon nanotubes (Canatu CNT), related products and manufacturing equipment for the semiconductor, automotive and medical diagnostics industries. The company operates through two business models, firstly using their own reactors to develop and manufacture CNT products. Second, the company sells its CNT reactors and licenses its related technology, allowing customers to produce the products themselves under a limited license.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures2025-08-31
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.0 | 14.9 | 29.8 |
| growth-% | 62.1 % | -32.4 % | 100.1 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | -4.8 | -11.6 | -7.6 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | -21.9 % | -78.2 % | -25.5 % |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.01 | -0.24 | -0.15 |
| Dividend | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dividend % | |||
| P/E (adj.) | neg. | neg. | neg. |
| EV/EBITDA | neg. | neg. | neg. |
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