Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/31/2026 at 9:04 am EEST.

African swine fever found in Finnish wild boars negatively impacts the export opportunities of the domestic meat industry. The cessation of pork exports to Asia could weaken the companies' EBIT by an estimated 3-5%.

Swine fever spread to Finland

Yesterday, it was reported that African swine fever (ASF) was found in the carcasses of dead wild boars in Virolahti, Southeast Finland. The disease is fatal to pigs but does not infect humans. The disease has previously been found in Estonia and Sweden, among other places. In Estonia, the spread of the disease to pig farms last year caused significant losses for the meat industry.

Disease discovery leads to export restrictions

Many countries restrict pork imports from countries where African swine fever has been detected. According to HKFoods, pork exports to China and Japan could be cut off for up to three years.

Atria and HKFoods primarily export pork to Asia, where the most important export countries are China, Japan, and South Korea. We estimate that the interruption of exports could mean an annual negative impact on earnings of ~3-5% for the companies. The impact on current year earnings would naturally be smaller, as less than half of the year remains. Exports are not particularly valuable in terms of revenue, but they partly include carcass parts for which there is no food market within Europe. Such products have been mainly exported to China.

Guidances may become a source of tension

Both Atria and HKFoods are guiding for increasing adjusted EBIT for the current year. We have considered reaching of guidances quite likely due to, e.g., due to favorable barbecue weather in Q2. However, the interruption of exports clearly increases uncertainty regarding the guidances.