Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/11/2026 at 07:20 am EET

Auroora will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, November 19. We expect the company's revenue to have grown strongly, driven by both acquisitions and organic growth. We expect earnings to take a clear step up from the comparison period, supported by the structurally better profitability of acquisitions and volume growth. The company does not provide short-term guidance, so in the earnings release, our attention will focus particularly on the organic growth outlook and the company's comments on its recent acquisitions. The recently announced major data center investments are unlikely to directly generate significant business for Auroora's Electrification and Automation segment, but the broader electrification of society, which they help accelerate, supports the segment companies' prospects in the medium term. Considering this and Finland's recovering economic growth, we assume that the organic growth outlook has also remained good.

Acquisitions and organic growth drive the top line

We expect Auroora's Q3 revenue to have increased by ~27% to 68 MEUR. In our estimates, slightly over one-half of the growth will be generated by completed acquisitions, but we also expect organic growth to have been at a double-digit level. Thus, we expect the organic growth rate to have cooled slightly from the very strong levels seen earlier in the year (H1: +21%), which we find warranted, especially as Q2 received some support from the timing of certain companies' deliveries.

At the segment level, we expect revenue for the largest Electrification and Automation segment to have grown to 38 MEUR, supported by a strong demand environment such as investments in power grids, energy efficiency, and data centers. Growth is supported by, among other things, the segment's order book, which has grown robustly in recent quarters (Q2'26: 121.5 MEUR, Q4'25: 96.9 MEUR). Growth will still receive slight support from the WestimQPower acquisition. In the Industrial Products and Services segment, we expect revenue to have risen to 24 MEUR, driven by slight organic growth but primarily by numerous completed acquisitions. In the Clean Water and Environmental Technology segment, we estimate revenue to have grown to 6.2 MEUR, driven similarly by slight organic growth and the Rasmix acquisition completed earlier in the year.

Expectations of a clear earnings improvement and margin strengthening

We estimate Auroora's adjusted EBITA to have been 6.5 MEUR in Q3, which would represent a clear year-on-year improvement (Q3'25: 4.3 MEUR). Our estimate would correspond to a margin of 9.5% (Q3'25: 7.8%). Earnings improvement and the rise in relative profitability are supported in our estimates by organic volume growth and completed acquisitions, which have had stronger profitability than Auroora's own historical level. Auroora has commented that within the year, its earnings are weighted towards H2. Our estimates also expect this (ad. EBITA H2e 13.6 MEUR vs. H1 tot: 8.2 MEUR), but our Q3 estimate is still at the Q2 level (6.5 MEUR).

We expect the earnings of the Electrification and Automation segment to have been 1.9 MEUR. We expect the Industrial Products and Services segment to continue as the most profitable part of the group, and we forecast its adjusted EBITA to have been 4.3 MEUR. We expect adjusted EBITA in the Clean Water and Environmental Technology segment to have continued on a positive trajectory and reached 0.7 MEUR. We expect the Other segment (including, among other things, group expenses) to have posted a result of -0.4 MEUR. However, due to still incomplete comparison figures, there is uncertainty associated with forecasting the seasonal variation of the segment results. The company's structure also naturally changes constantly through acquisitions.

Eyes on the organic growth outlook and acquisitions

Auroora does not provide short-term financial guidance, which is characteristic of compounders. Regarding the near-term outlook, one metric is the order book of the segments, although its delivery time also varies greatly between different companies and segments, and its forecast accuracy in the short term is likely not very precise. However, it does provide a certain picture of the trend development in demand. The order backlog grew to 170 MEUR at the end of Q2 (Q1'26: 163 MEUR, Q4'25: 137.1 MEUR). By then, the order book had already accumulated business for next year as well, which improves visibility. We will follow with interest whether the strong momentum has continued and how the demand environment has developed across the various segments. We estimate that the larger data center projects announced during the fall will support the outlook for the largest segment, Electrification and Automation, driven by broader societal electrification and power grid investments, although we understand that direct business related specifically to large data center projects is limited. We estimate that medium-sized data centers could also generate direct sales.

In addition, we will pay attention to the company's comments on its recent acquisitions and the M&A pipeline going forward. The company has recently completed three acquisitions (Labko, Coating Source, BRIX facades) putting its strong balance sheet (Q2'26: Net debt/EBITDA 0.7x) to good use since the IPO. The three recent transactions have not yet been completed during Q3 (Suomen Teknohaus was), so we will only be able to assess the purchase prices and balance sheet impacts of the recent acquisitions at the end of Q4. Now the company has made five acquisitions during the current year, while its target is 4-8. However, the company has described the volume and quality of its project pipeline as having increased since the IPO, so we do not consider it impossible that we will hear about new deals during the remainder of the year. We will incorporate the recent acquisitions into our forecasts in connection with the Q3 report.