Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/21/2026 at 8:05 am EEST.

Betolar will publish its Q3'26 business review on Wednesday, October 28. We expect revenue to have nearly doubled from the low comparison level, but to have decreased from the previous quarter as the revenue recognition of the infrastructure order received in October 2025 fades. We expect the loss to have narrowed thanks to a lighter cost base and recognized subsidies. Due to the business model change, however, the quarterly figures tell less than before about the development of the company's value, and our main focus is on the progress of the business under the new corporate structure and the Otanmäki project ahead of the Capital Markets Day at the end of November.

Revenue recognition from the infrastructure order is tapering off

We forecast Q3 revenue to have risen to 0.4 MEUR (Q3'25: 0.2 MEUR). Compared to the previous quarter (Q2'26: 0.5 MEUR), we expect revenue to have decreased, as we anticipate the revenue recognition of the 1.4 MEUR infrastructure order to have concluded according to the original schedule in the third quarter. In addition to the remainder of the order, our revenue forecast consists of blast furnace slag brokerage and smaller customer projects.

We expect new orders to have grown to 0.5 MEUR in Q3 (Q3'25: 0.3 MEUR), which would be a clear improvement compared to the level at the beginning of the year (in H1'26, intake remained at 0.3 MEUR). Betolar has not announced any significant new orders since October 2025, which is why, in our view, the estimate risk regarding orders is elevated. However, in the short term, the significance of orders for the investment story is lower than before. The value of metal extraction is created through the partner structure and licenses, and in critical infrastructure protection, commercialization is progressing with partners in phases from design projects toward turnkey deliveries.

Subsidies and a lighter cost base narrow the loss

We expect EBITDA to have improved to -0.8 MEUR (Q3'25: -1.0 MEUR). Our forecast includes ~0.36 MEUR of grant income in other operating income (Q2'26: 0.15 MEUR). The timing of grants can cause volatility in EBITDA, so we also monitor EBITDA adjusted for grant income. We expect it to have been ~-1.2 MEUR (Q2'26: -1.3 MEUR), which implies that the cost base has lightened by ~10% from Q2 due to the furloughs in June and the summer season. The costs related to the new management, setting up the subsidiary structure, and preparing for the Capital Markets Day limit the visibility of the savings in the figures.

We expect cash assets to have grown clearly from the 5.9 MEUR at the end of Q2, but the cash level is affected by an unusually high number of timing items. In July, the final 1 MEUR of the first tranche of the convertible bond was received, September saw the timing of an additional 1 MEUR tranche from ScaleWolf, and we assume that the company drew down the 3 MEUR bank loan agreed upon in June during the third quarter. Operating cash flow and the 1 MEUR exclusivity fee for Otanmäen, the exact timing of which is not known to us, have an offsetting impact. Depending on the timing of these items, we expect cash and cash equivalents to have been ~9–10 MEUR at the end of the review period. ScaleWolf's 2 MEUR investments in subsidiaries are timed for December at the earliest. Following the financing arrangements, we estimate that the company's funding needs are covered for ~2 years.t the adjusted EBITDA will improve to -0.8 MEUR (Q3'25:

New structure and Otanmäki progress are more important than the Q3 figures

Betolar guides for revenue to grow significantly in 2026 compared to the previous year (2025: 0.9 MEUR). H1'26 revenue (0.9 MEUR) already matched the level of the entire previous year, meaning the guidance has practically been achieved. We forecast full-year revenue of 1.7 MEUR and EBITDA of -3.6 MEUR, which requires revenue of 0.8 MEUR in H2.

In our view, comments on the progress of the business under the new corporate structure are more important than the Q3 figures. ScaleWolf's investments of 2 MEUR in metal extraction and critical infrastructure protection companies require the subsidiaries to be sufficiently operational by mid-December, and final agreements for the additional investment of 8 MEUR are targeted by the end of the year. In metal extraction technology, we will pay special attention to the progress of the Otanmäki project. Regarding critical infrastructure protection, Betolar announced yesterday a framework agreement signed with Enersense for the protection of substations and data centers in Finland and the Baltics, which we comment on separately here. The press release does not state the value of the contract, and responsibilities will be agreed on a project-by-project basis, so we will monitor the cooperation turning into concrete projects. We expect the report to pave the way for the Capital Markets Day on November 26, where the company has stated it will report on its progress going forward through customers, projects, and milestones