Byggmästaren will publish its Q2 report on Friday, July 24. We estimate NAV per share declined ~10% q/q to SEK 61.1, as weak share price development in Green Landscaping weighed on the listed portfolio and more than offset steady operational progress in the unlisted core holdings. At the current share price of SEK 51.5, the stock trades at a discount of ~16% to our estimated Q2 NAV, still above the 5-year historical average of ~9%. With a strong liquidity position and an active share buyback program, we believe the company remains well-positioned to continue its active ownership strategy and capitalize on the elevated NAV discount.

Green's sharp share price decline drives the NAV contraction, while we expect unlisted valuations to hold up

Based on the listed assets' closing share prices at quarter-end, we estimate a net value change of -167 MSEK (around -180 MSEK when excluding investments made in Green during Q2) in Byggmästaren's listed holdings. The decline was driven primarily by Green Landscaping (Byggmästaren's largest listed holding), whose share price fell around 38% during Q2'26, while Infrea's share price declined around 6% over the quarter. For the unlisted portfolio, visibility between reporting periods is limited, but we expect modest positive revisions overall, particularly for DP Patterning, driven by continued operational improvements and strengthening financials. Safe Life's valuation, meanwhile, is expected to remain relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, supported by the bolt-on acquisitions completed during the period.

Green's Q2: top-line beats again, but margins miss, and the CEO steps down

Green Landscaping reported Q2'26 revenue of 1,847 MSEK (Inderes: 1,704 MSEK) and EBITA of 130 MSEK (Inderes: 133 MSEK, 7.8% margin), representing a 15% growth (of which 6% organic) at a 7.0% EBITA margin (Q2'25: 9.0%). As in Q1, the top line beat our estimates comfortably while EBITA came in fractionally light, representing the same revenue-beat/margin-miss trend for a second consecutive quarter. Both domestic segments stayed below target: Sweden's margin fell to 4.0% (Q2'25: 5.5%), partly a mix effect from the January Jordelit divestment and residual drag from Swedish entity closures, while Norway recovered sequentially to 4.1% (Q1'26: -3.2%) as high season arrived but remained well below last year's 8.3%. Other Europe again anchored the group at 16.6% (19.5%). Management's core message was that the market is seeing a slight relief, with fewer bidders and healthier order books, although pricing has yet to recover, with the situation in Norway framed as cyclical rather than structural price pressure. Management also noted that one of the two troubled subsidiaries in Norway identified in Q1 has witnessed progress since then. Group leverage rose again to 3.4x (Q1: 3.1x; target <2.5x), a third straight quarterly increase, though management guided to flat working capital in Q3 and positive cash flow in Q4/Q1, providing conditions for deleveraging. Post-quarter, CEO Johan Nordström stepped down after 11 years, with board member Clein Johansson Ullenvik stepping in as interim CEO while an open succession process is underway. Following the report, we expect to make downward revisions to our earnings estimates and fair value for Green in connection with Byggmästaren's Q2 reporting.

For the unlisted portfolio, we anticipate continued solid performance from the core holdings. For Safe Life, we estimate Q2 revenue of 74 MEUR (Q2'25: 55 MEUR) and EBITA of 7.4 MEUR (5 MEUR). We consider it important that Safe Life continues to execute on its bolt-on acquisition strategy, which we believe should further strengthen its market position and contribute to inorganic growth from H2 onwards. We also expect some contributions from the acquisitions made in Q1 and H2'25. Safe Life's Q1 was somewhat soft due to slower US expansion and ongoing platform investments, and we expect margins to expand gradually as the company's transition toward a solutions-oriented sales approach gains further traction. As we noted in our comment from early July, Safe Life's acquisition pace has so far in 2026 exceeded our expectations, and we will review whether to raise our forecast range for future acquired revenue in connection with the Q2 report.

DP Patterning, on the other hand, delivered what we consider a significant upside surprise in Q1, and we expect the ongoing capacity expansion to sustain a high delivery pace. However, we remain cautious about simply projecting the Q1 performance forward, as future growth will depend on reliably ramping up production and navigating long sales cycles to broaden the currently concentrated customer base. We estimate DP Patterning's Q2 revenue at 42 MSEK (Q1'26: 51 MSEK, Q2'25: 9 MSEK) with EBITDA of 9.5 MSEK (Q1'26: 13.5 MSEK, Q2'25: 1 MSEK).

Active capital allocation and focus on narrowing the NAV discount

Byggmästaren ended Q1 with 465 MSEK in available liquidity (235 MSEK in cash and 230 MSEK in undrawn credit facilities), providing significant dry powder for new investments. Management has noted that several potential candidates for a fourth core holding are being evaluated. During the quarter, the Board also resolved to initiate a new share buyback program of up to 50 MSEK. We continue to view share buybacks as a highly accretive capital allocation tool, effectively creating immediate value for remaining shareholders by repurchasing shares below NAV. During Q2, Byggmästaren bought back shares worth ~17 MSEK, a significant step up from the ~2 MSEK worth of buybacks in the previous quarter.

On the portfolio side, Byggmästaren stepped up its activity during Q2: it added ~13 MSEK to its Green position, in what we view as an opportunistic move to take advantage of the depressed share price, and committed 10 MSEK to the Infrea–Netel merger through a new share issue (scheduled to take place in September 2026). As a result, Infrea's valuation now effectively floats with Netel's share price, tracking the agreed exchange terms less a deal-risk spread. In addition, Byggmästaren distributed a dividend of SEK 0.70 per share, or 20 MSEK, to its shareholders during the quarter.

In addition, the portfolio company Team Olivia (~17.5% stake) agreed to divest its Danish operations to Carelink Gruppen for 282 MDKK on a cash- and debt-free basis, a transaction expected to close in late Q3'26 (read our comment here).

Our Q2'26 NAV estimate points to a ~10% decline as Green's share price weighs on the listed portfolio

After incorporating estimated value changes in holdings, completed corporate transactions, and the impact of operating expenses, we estimate Q2'26 NAV of ~1,755 MSEK, down from ~1,961 MSEK in Q1'26 (-10%), corresponding to a NAVPS of SEK 61.1 (SEK 67.6). The decline is driven almost entirely by the weak share price development in Green Landscaping, which more than offsets the expected steady operational progress and broadly stable valuations across the unlisted portfolio. Relative to the benchmark index (SIXRX), which returned +9% q/q and +19% y/y, both Byggmästaren's NAV development (-10% q/q) and total shareholder return (~0% q/q) clearly lagged the benchmark.

At the Q2 closing share price of SEK 51.5 and our estimated NAVPS of SEK 61.1, the P/NAV discount stands at ~16%, narrower than the ~22% at the end of Q1. However, in our view, this narrowing is largely mechanical, reflecting the lower NAV rather than a re-rating of the share, which was broadly flat over the quarter. The discount remains above the 5-year historical average of ~9%, a gap we continue to view as excessive given Byggmästaren's portfolio composition, balance sheet strength, and long-term track record. In our view, key watchpoints for the Q2 report include updates on the operational ramp-up in DP Patterning, overall margin progression and integration of the four new acquisitions into Safe Life, as well as any further capital deployment.

*Our Q2'26 NAV estimate is not a reflection of our view of the portfolio's fair value, but rather an assessment of what we believe Byggmästaren will report, based on observable listed asset price movements and our best approximation of unlisted asset developments quarter-on-quarter.