Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/24/2026 at 12:39 noon EEST.

Canatu announced on Monday that it had received a reactor order worth over 5 MEUR from South Korean FST, but the preliminary H1 revenue figures and the outlook for 2026 provided at the same time were a disappointment compared to our expectations. The company now expects 2026 revenue to decline significantly from the previous year, whereas we had expected strong growth. Part of this is explained by the timing of reactor deliveries (the majority of revenue will not be recognized until 2027), but otherwise, the development appears to be falling short of our expectations. In our view, FST's second reactor order is an important vote of confidence in Canatu's technology, which creates belief in the long-term growth story. However, in the short term, developments fall short of expectations, and there is downward pressure on our estimates. We will review our forecasts and view on Canatu in connection with the H1 report to be published tomorrow.

FST reactor order is an important and anticipated step forward

The new CNT100 SEMI reactor order from FST is valued at over 5 MEUR, excluding royalties and recurring items. The reactor delivery is scheduled for 2027, and most of the related revenue will be recognized then. However, the order will already partly support H2'26 revenue. The order follows earlier orders for long lead-time components this year and indicates FST's preparations for scaling up the production of CNT pellicles. Although we had expected a second reactor order from FST, its confirmation is a positive signal of Canatu's technological competitiveness and the deepening customer relationship. Once commercial production begins with the additional reactor, Canatu expects to receive recurring revenue from royalties and from its own consumables used in the CNT manufacturing process. These recurring revenue streams are central to the company's long-term investment story.

Current-year outlook and H1 development were far from our expectations

Concurrently with the reactor order, Canatu provided preliminary information on its H1 performance and full-year outlook. H1 revenue decreased by ~42% to 4.2 MEUR (H1 2025: 7.3 MEUR), which was clearly below our 8.5 MEUR estimate. At the same time, the company updated its full-year outlook, according to which 2026 revenue will decrease significantly from the 2025 level (15.6 MEUR). This is a clear disappointment compared to our expectations, as we had forecast 40% growth to 21.8 MEUR in revenue for the current year. The timing of the reactor delivery partly affects this year's figures, as our forecast already anticipated significant revenue from the new reactor order for this year. In the short term, Canatu sees certain factors that reduce revenue predictability and continue to increase volatility. We expect to hear more about these in connection with the H1 report. Underlying factors include the uncertain timing of customer negotiations and the risk of delays in customer acceptance (SAT) for the second CNT100 SEMI reactor, which is not entirely within Canatu's control. In light of the preliminary information, revenue in the early part of the year has been very soft, which likely means a decrease in inspection membrane sales in the semiconductor sector compared to the reference period, and also soft development in the Robotics, Mobility and Defense segment (formerly Automotive).

Weak short-term figures are testing investors' patience

Canatu's investor story relies on strong, scalable growth, especially with the opening of the EUV pellicle market in the semiconductor industry. While the long-term market potential and Canatu's technological competitive advantage still appear strong, short-term execution is now clearly falling short of expectations. At this point, the company is unlikely to provide further details on its 2027 outlook, but a new reactor order and FST's anticipated transition to mass production will lay the groundwork for revenue growth at that time. At the same time, the comparison figures for 2026 are set to be weak. Our forecast had previously anticipated strong revenue growth to 48.7 MEUR for 2027, which, in addition to new reactor deliveries, would require a reasonably significant revenue stream from recurring batches. In light of the latest information, such a steep growth trajectory no longer appears to be the base scenario, so there is downward pressure on our estimates.