Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/18/2026 at 7:05 am EEST.

Canatu will publish its H1 report on Tuesday, August 25, at 9:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have grown moderately from the comparison period, driven by both the semiconductor sector and the Robotics, Mobility and Defense segment (formerly Automotive Industry). We expect the result to have remained clearly in the red due to the company's front-loaded growth investments and still low revenue level. In the report, our attention is particularly drawn to the progress of the reactor business, as the company has not yet announced the one new reactor order targeted for this year. We will also be monitoring the new CEO's initial comments and the status of customer approvals for the second reactor customer. Canatu's extensive report, published in April, can be read here.

Moderate revenue growth in absolute terms is expected

We forecast Canatu's H1 revenue to have grown by 16% to 8.5 MEUR. We expect Semiconductor Industry revenue to have increased by 6% to 6.1 MEUR from the comparison period, which also did not include new reactor orders. In March, the company announced a follow-up order (1-2 MEUR) for long lead-time components from its current reactor customer (our assumption is FST), which supports revenue development. Sales of inspection membranes also provide the company with steady revenue, but precise visibility into Canatu's revenue development is weak. We estimate that the Robotics, Mobility and Defense segment's revenue grew by 53% to 2.4 MEUR, supported by ongoing development projects, such as the collaboration with DENSO. We do not expect revenue from Medical Diagnostics, as this business area is still in an early development phase and the launch of the first commercial product is planned for the end of the decade.

We expect earnings to still be clearly in the red

We estimate Canatu's adjusted EBIT for H1 to have been -8.3 MEUR (H1'25: -4.9 MEUR), Canatu's cost structure is largely fixed, and in recent years, the company has made significant investments to strengthen its organization and expand its production capacity. For example, the construction of the second factory in Vantaa and investments in the PELMIS inspection system increase depreciation and expenses. Scaling earnings and turning profitable requires significant growth in reactor business volumes in the coming years. Canatu's strong balance sheet enables investments, as its net cash position was still 90 MEUR at the end of H2'25.

Focus on reactor deals and comments from the new CEO

Canatu has not provided numerical guidance for the 2026 financial year, as the outcome and timing of ongoing customer negotiations significantly impact the company's short-term revenue development. In addition, the timeline for customer acceptance (SAT) of the second CNT100 SEMI reactor depends on the customer's processes. However, the company has provided a list of key operational targets for this year. The most important of these are to sell at least one new reactor to the semiconductor sector and to finalize customer approvals for the second reactor customer during this year. In the report, our interest is particularly focused on these matters. The report is also the first for the new CEO, Maximilian Slawinski, who started in May, so we will be following his comments with interest after a few months of familiarization. We currently forecast Canatu's 2026 revenue to grow to 21.8 MEUR (+40%), supported by one new reactor order. At the same time, we expect Canatu's cost structure to continue to grow, which will result in EBITDA (2026e -11.5 MEUR) remaining clearly in the red.

The market environment appears favorable for Canatu's longer-term growth. ASML, a key player in the industry, reported significantly stronger-than-expected Q2 results in July and substantially raised its full-year guidance, driven by AI investments. ASML's plans to aggressively increase its EUV capacity in 2027–2028 create excellent conditions for the growth of Canatu's target market, as the proliferation of the most advanced EUV systems is a key driver for the demand for the company's CNT pellicles.