Columbus released its Q3 2026 interim report this morning alongside ASTRA 29, its new strategy for 2027-2029, replaces “New Heights” strategy and sets financial ambitions for 2029 of DKK 2bn in revenue, DKK 300m in EBITDA and a recurring revenue share of 20%  

Revenue rose 6% to DKK 367m and EBITDA adjusted for other operating income and expenses reached DKK 38m, corresponding to a margin of 10.3% against 6.9% in Q3 2025. Reported EBITDA was DKK 17.7m, or 4.8%, after DKK 20m in severance costs from the capacity adjustment completed during the quarter.

None of those headline figures are new. Columbus pre-released them on 22 October in company release no. 65/2026, together with the downgrade of the 2026 EBITDA margin guidance from 8-10% to approximately 6% and the narrowing of organic revenue growth from 0-5% to 2-3%. Today’s report confirms the preliminary numbers to the decimal and adds what the pre-release did not contain: the Business Line and market detail, the contribution margins, the efficiency rate, the cash flow and the balance sheet. That detail is where the quarter is actually judged, and it is more encouraging than the preliminary release allowed investors to see.

Beneath the headline, growth was carried by Dynamics 365, up 8% in service revenue, Data & AI, up 27%, and EIM, up 60%, while M3 was broadly flat at minus 1% and Digital Commerce fell 9%. By market, Norway grew service revenue 54% and the US 25%, while Sweden declined 3% and Denmark 9%. Efficiency improved to 62% from 58% a year earlier, and the average number of FTEs fell to 1,429 from 1,485. Operating cash flow was DKK 55m against DKK 7m in Q3 2025, driven by a reduction in trade receivables.

Year to date, the picture is still the one the downgrade was about. Revenue rose 1% to DKK 1,205m, adjusted EBITDA fell to DKK 81m from DKK 89m, and the adjusted margin declined to 6.7% from 7.4%. Reported EBITDA year to date is DKK 61m, a margin of 5.0%. The weak first half, not the third quarter, remains the reason the 2026 guidance was cut, which is the reading we gave on 22 October.

2026 Guidance

The revised 2026 guidance of 2-3% organic revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of approximately 6% is confirmed unchanged today. Against nine-month revenue of DKK 1,205m and reported EBITDA of DKK 61m, it implies Q4 revenue of roughly DKK 403-418m and EBITDA of around DKK 36m, a margin close to 9% against the 9.2% delivered in Q4 2025. The margin requirement is therefore a repeat of last year rather than a step-up, while the revenue requirement implies growth of 5-9%, an acceleration from Q3. Management expects efficiency to improve further in Q4. The risk of a second disappointment in 2026 now sits in the top line rather than in the margin.

Long-term targets

ASTRA 29 replaces New Heights and sets financial ambitions for 2029 of DKK 2bn in revenue, DKK 300m in EBITDA and a recurring revenue share of 20% of total revenue. The strategy rests on three priorities: strengthening existing services through AI-enabled delivery, developing new agentic services, and expanding Columbus’ role as an operating partner that runs and improves customers’ business-critical systems rather than only implementing them. The ambitions are organic, exclude acquisitions, and assume broadly stable macroeconomic conditions and no deterioration in customer investment activity.

This is the event we have described as the key re-rating trigger since Q2, when the 10% growth and 15% EBITDA margin ambitions stopped being restated in the reporting. Columbus has now filled that vacuum, and the new targets are not a simple restatement of the old ones.

The quarter answers one of the central question in our case

Since the Q2 investment case we have framed Columbus around a single question: is the returning growth margin-accretive? Q3 is the first quarter that answers yes, and it does so in the seasonally weakest quarter of the year.

The most important number is not the headline margin but the contribution margin. Adjusted for the DKK 20m severance charge allocated across the Business Lines, Q3 contribution margin was approximately 25%, against 22% in Q3 2025 and roughly 18% in H1 2026. Pricing pressure in Scandinavia and low initial margins on large new wins were the key constraint we identified in the case, and this is the first quarter in which that compression reverses rather than deepens. The efficiency rate supports the same reading, although 62% is below the 65% reached in Q2 and still well short of the 70% target.

Dynamics 365 is where the swing sits. Alongside 8% service revenue growth, contribution margin improved to 27% from 20%. That combination, growth and margin in the same quarter in the Business Line that carries 60% of revenue, is the operational proof the case has been waiting for.

Growth is still narrow

The composition is less comfortable. Sweden and Denmark together are still about half of group service revenue, and neither has turned. The improvement from Q2, when Sweden fell 8% and Denmark 12%, is real but incremental. Group growth currently rests on a Norwegian contract cycle that is project-driven and therefore lumpy, supported by a US business growing from a small base.

Data & AI is the other tension. Service revenue grew 27%, yet contribution margin was negative 3% against positive 6% a year ago, weighed down by capability investments such as “Agent in a Day”. This matters more than its size suggests, because Data & AI is the practice ASTRA 29 asks to carry the new agentic services pillar. The fastest-growing unit is currently the least profitable one. EIM is the counterweight, with 60% growth and a 43% contribution margin, and it remains the clearest evidence that Columbus can scale a new service line profitably.

Digital Commerce declined 9% with a contribution margin of 9%. The goodwill test confirms positive headroom, but the assumption set has been cut again: forecast revenue growth of 0% versus 9% at year-end, forecast EBITDA margin of 1% versus 5%, a terminal margin of 8% versus 17% and a WACC of 9.7% versus 9.4%. With DKK 115m of goodwill attached, this remains the most likely source of a non-cash negative surprise at the full-year report.

The cost base is the 2027 story

The capacity adjustment affecting more than 80 employees was completed in Q3 and cost DKK 20m. The Q3 average FTE count only partly reflects it, so the full effect lands from Q4. Based on year-to-date staff costs per FTE, we estimate the gross annualised cost removed at roughly DKK 50-65m, with the net effect lower since part of the capacity was billable. Even at the bottom of that range, the payback on the DKK 20m charge is a matter of months, and it is the single most important input to 2027 earnings. Columbus has not quantified it, and that remains the first question for management.

What the 2029 targets require

The targets deserve to be read against what they replace. DKK 300m of EBITDA on DKK 2bn of revenue is a 15% margin, which is the New Heights margin ambition re-dated by three years rather than a new one. The growth ambition is where the reset happens: DKK 2bn in 2029 is a compound growth rate of about 6% from 2025 and roughly 7% from the 2026 exit level, materially below the 10% that was never formally withdrawn but has not been restated since Q2. Lowering the growth bar while holding the margin bar is the right order of priority, and it is consistent with everything management has said this year about value over hours.

The arithmetic is demanding. Moving from roughly DKK 97m of EBITDA in 2026 to DKK 300m in 2029 on approximately DKK 390m of incremental revenue implies an incremental EBITDA margin above 50%. In a business where salaries are the cost base, that is only achievable if AI-enabled delivery, reusable IP and non-time-and-materials pricing genuinely break the link between hours and revenue. The first Augmented Delivery contracts signed in Q3, combining consultants with AI agents at a fixed price for a defined outcome, are the mechanism. They are also, so far, a handful of contracts.

The recurring revenue target is the cleanest test of all. Recurring revenue was DKK 54m in Q3, down 4% year on year and 15% of revenue, with the year-to-date share at 14%. A 20% share of DKK 2bn is DKK 400m, close to double the current run rate, from a base that is currently shrinking. We would treat the recurring share, reported quarterly, as the leading indicator of whether ASTRA 29 is working, well before the margin shows it.

Balance sheet and valuation

Net interest-bearing debt including leases is approximately DKK 180m, down from around DKK 226m at the end of Q2, and the equity ratio is 57.2%. Year-to-date operating cash flow remains weak at DKK 14m against DKK 42m, so the Q3 inflow is a reversal of working capital rather than a trend. Capital returns have continued through the dividend and the buyback, with the share count reduced to 128.0m. The DKK 54.8m US receivable is unchanged, with no credit loss recorded and a court ruling expected in Q1 2027.

On a market capitalisation of about DKK 1.2bn and an enterprise value near DKK 1.4bn, Columbus trades at roughly 14x EV/EBITDA on 2026 guidance of approximately DKK 97m, or about 12x adjusted for the DKK 20m one-off, against Nordic IT peers near 8.5x. On the 2029 ambition of DKK 300m, the same enterprise value is below 5x. The gap between those two numbers is the entire investment case. The market is pricing a depressed 2026 earnings base and almost none of ASTRA 29, which is reasonable given that the targets are ambitions rather than guidance and that the first real checkpoint is the 2027 guidance in February.

What closes that gap is not the strategy document but the quarterly evidence behind it: efficiency moving towards 70%, the contribution margin holding the Q3 improvement, Sweden and Denmark returning to growth, Data & AI turning profitable, and the recurring share rising rather than falling. Q3 delivered on the first two. The next three are what 2027 has to prove.

Columbus CEO & President Søren Krogh Knudsen and CFO Brian Iversen present the Q3 results and ASTRA 29 in a live online event today at 13:00 CET.

Sign up and submit your questions here:

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/columbus-presentation-of-interim-report-q3-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Columbus for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 11.02, 05-11-2026.