Componenta: Multi-year 10 MEUR order from the Finnish Defence Forces

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/26/2025 at 8:33 am EEST.

'The order will be delivered in 2025-2028 and includes an option worth 4.4 MEUR. The order does not create immediate pressure to change our Componenta forecasts for the coming years, which already include clear growth, but we will consider forecast changes in connection with our next update. However, the likely increase in the defense sector's weight in Componenta's business portfolio is, in our view, somewhat positive for the stock.

The order will be delivered between 2025 and 2028

Componenta announced yesterday that the company has confirmed an order for products to be delivered to the Finnish Defence Forces. The total value of the deal is around 10.4 MEUR, including an option worth some 4.4 MEUR, which must be exercised by December 31, 2026. Deliveries are scheduled for 2025-2028. The transaction has no impact on Componenta’s earnings guidance for 2025.

The weight of the defense sector in Componenta's business portfolio is growing

15% of Componenta's revenue came from the defense sector last year, and we estimate that the Finnish Defence Forces have been among the company's customers before (including the multi-year 50 MEUR cooperation agreement on shell-tail assemblies for grenades announced last year). Thus, the order from the currently very active defense sector and the Finnish Defence Forces was not a significant surprise in our view. We believe that demand from the defense sector has different cycles compared to the company's other customer segments driven by more traditional industries. Therefore, a business structure that is somewhat diversified due to the growth of the defense sector is a positive direction from the perspective of the stock's risk profile.

Our revenue forecasts for Componenta for 2025-2028 are in the range of 115-150 MEUR, so the order is, in our view, medium-sized on an annual basis relative to the company's scale. We have already forecast good growth for Componenta in the coming years (cf. financial target of over 150 MEUR revenue in 2027). In our view, the deliveries to the defense sector could have a good margin profile given the prevailing demand situation, although it is difficult to assess due to the limited information provided about the delivery (this is not uncommon for defense sector orders). Thus, yesterday’s order does not cause immediate pressure for changes to our Componenta estimates, but we will review the order’s impact on our estimates in connection with our next update.