Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/23/2026 at 9:26 am EEST.

Componenta published its half-year report this morning. Strong revenue growth in Q2 fell short of our forecast, but profitability exceeded our expectations clearly across all lines. The report puts upward pressure on our earnings forecasts, while the direction for the revenue forecast is not as clear. The again strengthened earnings level reinforces our confidence in the sustainability of the earnings improvement, which is crucial for the investment case. On earnings day, our attention will be drawn to management's comments on the more detailed factors behind the earnings improvement.

Revenue grew strongly but was below our forecast

Q2 revenue grew by 20% to 37.2 MEUR, which was below our 39.8 MEUR estimate. According to the company, growth was driven by new deals, the ramp-up of new products, and a slight market recovery. The industry breakdown published in the half-year figures confirmed that growth was driven by the defense and energy industries, as we expected: the share of defense in revenue rose to 16% (H1'25: 13%) and energy to 25% (23%), both slightly stronger than our expectations.

Profitability was clearly higher than our expectations

EBITDA rose to EUR 4.8 million in Q2 (Q2'26e: EUR 4.0 million), corresponding to a 12.9% margin (Q2'25: 8.5%), and was clearly higher than our expectations despite lower-than-forecast revenue. The company commented that the improvement in profitability was based on strengthened delivery volumes, improved productivity and quality, and the avoidance of costs from industrial actions that occurred at the beginning of the comparison period. According to the company, demand in the foundry business (which we estimate accounts for just under half of revenue) remained soft, so the machining business must have performed exceptionally well during the review period. Since revenue fell short of our expectations while profitability clearly exceeded them, this was likely due not only to the efficiency gained from higher volumes but also to improved margins. We estimate that deliveries focused on higher-margin products, likely influenced by the high capacity utilization rate in the subcontracting chain, driven by strong demand in the energy and defense sectors, which in turn can strengthen margin percentages throughout the supply chain. We will seek clarification on this on the earnings day, as understanding the mechanics of the profitability improvement is key when assessing its long-term sustainability. The earnings beat also reflected in the lower lines: adjusted EBIT rose to 3.3 MEUR (Q2'26e: 2.5 MEUR), and there were no major surprises in depreciation, financial items, or taxes compared to our forecasts. Q2 EPS landed at approximately EUR 0.24 (Q2'26e: EUR 0.17).

Order book grew significantly and exceeded our forecast

Componenta's two-month firm order book at the end of the review period was 17.4 MEUR (14.2 MEUR), exceeding our 15.9 MEUR estimate. According to the company, the 22.5% growth in the order book from the comparison period was driven by new sales and a slight market recovery. A stronger-than-expected order book provides a good starting point for the second half of the year and raises our Q3 revenue forecast. The ratio of revenue to the order book at the beginning of the period was lower in Q2'26 than the historical level (Q2'26 1.61x vs. 1.8x Q2 average of previous years), so the forecast beat in the order book may partly be explained by the timing of deliveries between quarters.

Guidance remained unchanged, upward pressure on earnings forecasts

Componenta reiterated its 2026 guidance, according to which the Group's revenue and adjusted EBIT are expected to improve from the previous year (2025: 115.7 MEUR and 4.3 MEUR). According to the company, the market situation in the energy industry has remained very strong due to data center projects, among other things, and customers' previously prolonged investment decisions in machine building are starting to be reflected in incoming orders. Expectations for a recovery in the agricultural machinery sector, however, have been pushed forward again. The partnership agreement with the Finnish Defense Forces, signed in June, strengthens the company's position in the defense sector. We expect the very strong demand period in the defense and energy industries to continue until the end of the current decade, which provides the conditions for maintaining a strong profitability level. On the other hand, the growing capacity of the subcontracting chain could ease the biggest price pressures within a few years. As profitability and order book exceeded our expectations, there is upward pressure on our earnings forecasts. The direction of the revenue forecast is not as clear: The Q2 outcome is below our estimate, but a stronger-than-expected order book raises our Q3 estimate.