Fasadgruppen Q1'26 flash comment: Cold start to the year, we expect recovery to be backloaded
Summary
- Fasadgruppen's Q1'26 revenue was 994 MSEK, marking an organic decline of 11.7%, slightly below both Inderes and consensus forecasts, primarily due to soft market conditions and project delays in the UK.
- The company's adj. EBITA fell sharply to 5.1 MSEK with a margin of 0.5%, significantly below expectations, driven by lower volumes and high financial expenses impacting profitability.
- Despite the weak start, the order backlog grew by 12.4% year-over-year to 4.5 BSEK, providing a strong foundation for anticipated recovery in H2'26 as UK project execution accelerates.
- Fasadgruppen aims for at least 15% revenue growth and a 10% EBITA margin, with expectations of growth and margin recovery being backloaded to H2'26.
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| Estimates | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | Q1'26e | Q1'26e | Consensus | Difference (%) | 2026e | ||
| MSEK / SEK | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Act. vs. inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 1173 | 995 | 1010 | 1050 | 1010 | - | 1111 | -1% | 5488 |
| EBITDA | 109 | 26.4 | 49.6 | 72.0 | 50.0 | - | 121 | -47% | 587 |
| EBITA (adj.) | 76.6 | 5.1 | 14.6 | 33.0 | 15.0 | - | 51.0 | -65% | 447 |
| EBIT | 32.9 | -7.8 | 9.6 | 37.0 | 10.0 | - | 85.0 | -182% | 437 |
| PTP | -10.9 | -59.0 | -26.0 | 1.7 | -26.0 | - | 51.0 | -127% | 294 |
| EPS (reported) | -0.10 | -0.99 | -0.23 | 0.00 | -0.23 | - | 0.23 | -325% | 2.63 |
| Revenue growth-% | 12.2 % | -15.3 % | -13.9 % | -10.5 % | -13.9 % | - | -5.3 % | -1.3 pp | 0.8 % |
| EBITA-% (adj.) | 6.5 % | 0.5 % | 1.4 % | 3.1 % | 1.5 % | - | 4.6 % | -0.9 pp | 8.1 % |
Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, 2025.05.13, 4 analysts
As expected, the start to the year was weak, with notable year-over-year declines in revenue and profitability. This was primarily driven by soft market conditions, a cold winter that slowed production, and project delays in the UK following regulatory approval lags. While we expect some short-term downwards revisions to our estimates following the weaker than expected report, we still anticipate a gradual recovery from Q2'26 and especially in H2'26 as market sentiment improves and the execution of Clear Line's UK backlog increases.
Weak start to the year as we had expected
Fasadgruppen’s Q1 group revenue reached 995 MSEK, corresponding to an organic decline of 11.7%, slightly below both our and consensus forecasts in absolute terms. The negative revenue development in Q1 was, as we had anticipated, largely driven by continued soft market conditions, particularly in Norway. Furthermore, Fasadgruppen has been negatively affected by a cold winter in January and February, delaying project starts within renovation. By segment, we believe that revenue development was mixed. While the largest segment, Total Solutions, showed an organic decline of -9.5% and came in above our expectations, Specialist Solutions came in below our estimates with an organic decline of -15.0%. Furthermore, as anticipated, the company’s UK subsidiary Clear Line showed weak revenue performance in Q1, though the results were even softer than we had projected. The segment showed an organic decline of -34.1%, mainly driven by delayed project starts due to longer BSR approval processes for fire safety in higher-risk UK buildings. While we believe that the development in the segment was slow during Q1, we expect these bottlenecks that have affected backlog conversion to ease in especially H2, following earlier regulatory approval for project starts.
On a positive note, the order backlog amounted to 4.5 BSEK, corresponding to a y/y growth of 12.4%, above our expectations and something we view as a strong outcome. We believe this robust backlog provides a solid foundation for growth, supporting our view of a recovery as UK project execution accelerates later this year.
Profitability declines on lower volumes
Fasadgruppen's adj. EBITA declined sharply to 5.1 MSEK, corresponding to a margin of 0.5% (Q1'25: 6.5%), significantly below both our and consensus forecast. The margin contraction was mainly driven by lower volumes, which limit the efficient absorption of fixed costs. By segment, we believe that Clear Line stood out on the positive side, above our forecasts, generating an adj. EBITA margin of 29.8% despite a sharp drop in volumes. Both Total Solutions and Specialist Solutions showed a negative adj. EBITA margin of -0.7% and -1%, respectively. Further down the income statement, high financial expenses continued to weigh on profitability, leading to an EPS of -0.99 SEK (Q1'25: -0.10 SEK).
We expect growth to be backloaded this year
Fasadgruppen does not provide formal financial guidance but refers to its financial targets of at least 15% revenue growth, including organic and inorganic expansion, as well as EBITA margin of at least 10%. We had beforehand expected that Q1 should be weak, with revenue growth and margin recovery to be backloaded to H2'26 as market sentiment improves and the execution of Clear Line's UK backlog increases. However, as the Q1 report came in below our expectations, we expect some downward pressure on our short-term estimates.