GRK Infra Q2'26 flash comment: Profitability clearly ahead of our expectations
Summary
- GRK's Q2 results exceeded profitability expectations, with adjusted EBIT reaching 24.4 MEUR, significantly above the 15.1 MEUR estimate, and an EBIT margin of 11.6% compared to the expected 6.9%.
- Revenue decreased to 210 MEUR, slightly below the 220 MEUR estimate, due to deliberate project selection, but the order book reached a record high of 1,170 MEUR, boosted by the KSBR acquisition.
- The company's strong operational execution and successful data center projects contributed to the improved profitability, with EPS of EUR 0.46 surpassing the expected EUR 0.28.
- Given the strong Q2 performance and record order book, there is upward pressure on full-year earnings forecasts, with GRK's updated guidance for 2026 revenue and adjusted EBIT aligning with previous estimates.
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| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | Diff-% | 2026 | |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 232 | 210 | 220 | 214 | -4% | 915 | |
| EBITDA | 19.7 | 26.7 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 39% | 97.0 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 16.5 | 24.4 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 61% | 79.9 | |
| EBIT | 15.7 | 22.1 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 46% | 76.9 | |
| Profit before tax | 17.1 | 23.9 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 60% | 78.1 | |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.35 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 62% | 1.55 | |
| EPS (reported) | 0.33 | 0.5 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 62% | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 27.2% | -9.4% | -5.3% | -9.4% | -4.1 pp | 4.9% | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 7.1% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.7 pp | 8.7% | |
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (3) (consensus)
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/28/2026 at 9:13 am EEST.
GRK's Q2 results, published this morning, clearly exceeded our profitability expectations. Revenue declined slightly more than we expected, but deliberate project selection and successful project execution were reflected in an excellent operating result. Given the exceptionally strong quarterly result and record-high order book, we see clear upward pressure on our full-year earnings forecasts.
Deliberate project selection weighed on revenue, order book at record level
GRK's revenue in the second quarter decreased to 210 MEUR (Q2'25: 232 MEUR), thus falling slightly short of our 220 MEUR estimate. Overall, H1 revenue decreased significantly in Sweden due to lower volumes from the Stegra project. We believe the Stegra project will generate revenue more rapidly in the second half of the year. At the same time, the company's order book rose to its highest level ever at 1,170 MEUR. The order book grew from 789 MEUR in the comparison period and 883 MEUR at the end of Q1, and it includes the project portfolio from the KSBR acquisition, which was finalized at the end of June. Significant projects won during the review period included the improvement projects for main roads 5 and 15 in Finland, as well as two sub-orders for Rail Baltica. In addition, the company highlighted the growing importance of the private sector in projects such as data centers and industrial projects, where the KSBR acquisition further strengthens the company's foothold.
Profitability surprisingly strong
Despite the decline in revenue, GRK's profitability developed exceptionally strongly in the second quarter. Adjusted EBIT of 24.4 MEUR clearly exceeded our 15.1 MEUR estimate (Q2'25: 16.5 MEUR). At the same time, the adjusted EBIT margin improved significantly to 11.6%, whereas we had expected it to be 6.9%. According to the company, the excellent earnings performance was based on selecting the right and profitable projects, strong operational execution, and efficient project delivery. In addition, the company highlighted data center projects, which had a significant impact on the quarter's revenue and earnings. Thus, we believe that the well-progressed data center projects also had a positive impact on profitability. Driven by operational efficiency, the second-quarter EPS of EUR 0.46 significantly surpassed our expectation of EUR 0.28.
Very strong Q2 print puts upward pressure on our forecasts
GRK already updated its earnings guidance at the end of June in connection with the completion of the KSBR acquisition. The company estimates that its revenue in 2026 will be 820–1,020 MEUR (2025: 872.3 MEUR) and its adjusted EBIT will be 70–95 MEUR in 2026 (2025: 58.5 MEUR). Prior to the report, we expected the company's full-year revenue to be 915 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to be 80 MEUR, so our previous forecasts are well within the updated guidance ranges. However, Q2's significantly stronger-than-expected operational profitability and a record-high order book create an exceptionally solid foundation for the second half of the year. We therefore see clear upside pressure in our forecasts for the rest of the year, especially regarding relative profitability.
GRK Infra operates in the infrastructure sector. The company's core competence includes the implementation of various infrastructure projects, project management of large and small projects and extensive railway expertise. Customers include the state, municipalities and cities as well as the private sector. In addition to the parent company GRK Infra Oyj, the GRK Group includes companies in each country of operation: GRK Suomi Oy in Finland, GRK Eesti AS in Estonia and GRK Sverige AB in Sweden.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures14/07
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 872.3 | 915.1 | 1,005.1 |
| growth-% | 19.8 % | 4.9 % | 9.8 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 58.2 | 79.9 | 82.2 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 6.7 % | 8.7 % | 8.2 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 1.17 | 1.55 | 1.59 |
| Dividend | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| Dividend % | 3.7 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 12.3 | 13.3 | 13.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
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