Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2026 at 09:10 am EET

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, (10/19/2026, 3 analysts, consensus) 

GRK's Q3 revenue fell clearly short of our estimate. However, profitability rose to an exceptionally high level again, meaning that adjusted EBIT was in line with our estimate. The miss occurred in Sweden and Estonia, whereas Finland grew strongly, supported by KSBR. The order book decreased as expected from the record level of Q2, but remained strong at over 1 BEUR. The company narrowed its guidance, and our current Q4 estimates fall within both ranges. However, the Q3 shortfall creates downward pressure on our current-year revenue estimate, while our earnings estimates remain close to current levels based on our preliminary assessment.

Finland grew strongly, Sweden and Estonia fell

GRK’s revenue grew by 12% from the comparison period to 288 MEUR, but fell short of our and consensus estimates (327 MEUR). Finnish revenue grew by 44% to 205 MEUR, driven by high project volumes and the consolidation of KSBR. Revenue in Sweden, on the other hand, decreased by 23% to 70 MEUR due to significantly lower volumes than in the comparison period for the Stegra project, and in Estonia, revenue was halved to 14 MEUR. Sweden's performance was already weaker than we expected early in the year, and we identified it in the preview as the quarter's biggest uncertainty.

Adjusted EBIT rose to 34.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 23.4 MEUR), which, despite the revenue miss, was in line with our estimate and beat the consensus (33.6 MEUR). The adjusted EBIT margin improved to 12.1% (estimate 10.7%). According to the company, profitability was supported by successful project selections and strong operational execution. In addition, project estimates were refined further as the projects progressed. We did not expect similar support to recur after Q2, so we view it as a positive surprise. Reported EBIT was 28.6 MEUR (estimate 31.0 MEUR). Items affecting comparability (IAC) were 6.3 MEUR, the majority of which (4.6 MEUR) consisted of PPA depreciation from the KSBR acquisition The Group's EPS fell to EUR 0.57 (estimate EUR 0.59).

Order backlog decreased as expected; values of data center projects disclosed

At the end of the quarter, the order backlog was 1,067 MEUR (Q2'26: 1,170 MEUR, Q3'25: 683 MEUR). The Q2 order book already included KSBR, so the order intake for the quarter was an estimated ~185 MEUR. The largest new project was a 80 MEUR data center contract. We believe this is the project won by KSBR in September, the value of which was not previously disclosed. The project was larger than our previous estimate. The report now names a total of four data center projects with a combined contract value of ~167 MEUR (66, 14, 80, and 7 MEUR). Two previously won projects are already under construction, and a portion of their revenue has been recognized, leaving the share of data centers in the order backlog below 16%. Other significant orders included the contract for the Keilaniemi and Länsiväylä bridges on Ring I (27 MEUR) and the first implementation phase of the Turku tramway (12 MEUR). The order backlog in Sweden and Estonia decreased from the end of Q2. The report did not comment on the suspension of preparatory work for the Muhos and Kajaani data center areas, so we will clarify its impact with the company.

Development-phase projects still hold significant potential outside the order book. According to the company, the combined value of the Rail Baltica main line and the Turku tramway for GRK is around 365 MEUR, of which the Turku tramway accounts for ~190 MEUR. The decision on the second implementation phase of the Turku project is contingent on state funding in the upcoming MAL negotiations. Operational free cash flow for the quarter was -0.1 MEUR (Q3'25: 65.0 MEUR), and the net cash position at the end of the period remained very strong at 153 MEUR.

Guidance narrowed and our Q4 estimates fall within the ranges

GRK refined its guidance and now expects its 2026 revenue to be 850-950 MEUR (was 820-1,020 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT to be 80-95 MEUR (was 70-95 MEUR). Revenue from January to September was 610 MEUR, and adjusted EBIT was 65 MEUR, meaning the guidance requires revenue of 240-340 MEUR and an adjusted EBIT of 15-30 MEUR for Q4. Our current Q4 estimates (~296 MEUR and 25 MEUR) fall within both ranges. Our revenue estimate is close to the middle of the range, while our adjusted EBIT estimate is in the upper half of the range and corresponds to a margin of ~8.5% (Q4'25: 4.8%). Our estimate requires a clear year-on-year improvement in profitability. However, we believe the CEO's expectation of a strong fourth quarter and the new projects starting in the remainder of the year support our estimate.