Harvia Q2'25 preview: Impact of tariffs on US demand in spotlight

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/5/2025 at 7:25 am EEST.

Harvia will report its Q4 result on Thursday at around 9 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to continue its good organic growth and the ThermaSol acquisition to support growth clearly above 10%. We anticipate that relative profitability will remain strong. We expect Harvia’s growth outlook to remain good this year as well.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance, 4 analysts (consensus)

Revenue is expected to continue growing clearly

We anticipate 13% organic revenue growth in Q2, with ThermaSol accounting for around 8% of that growth. On the other hand, the weakened USD negatively impacts figures reported in euros. As usual, we expect growth to come mainly from outside of Europe. We expect the APAC&MEA region to grow by 15% fully organically and North America by over 35% supported by the acquisition, but also with strong organic growth. In Northern Europe, we still expect a slight revenue decline, while we anticipate revenue in continental Europe to remain at the same level as in the comparison period. Last year, the comparison period was slightly boosted by deliveries that were postponed from Q1 to Q2 due to the strike, which is why we expect growth to slow down from the pace seen in Q1.

Harvia has not commented much on the impact of US tariffs, so we consider that to be the most interesting aspect of the report. The direct effects, as we understand them, are limited and can be offset by price increases. The most interesting question is whether demand for Harvia has changed in the US. As mentioned above, our forecasts predict continued strong growth in North America, though growth rates will not reach the previous two quarters' levels of up to 60%. Growth in Q4 was particularly supported by successful price-driven promotions.

We estimate margins will improve slightly from the comparison period

We expect Q2’s adjusted EBIT margin to increase slightly from the comparison period and remain at around 22%. The integration of ThermaSol into the group should cause a slight margin decline in the initial phase, but this has not been particularly visible in the figures. In absolute terms, we expect the result to improve, driven by revenue growth and an improved material margin. For some reason, the consensus forecast for adj. EBIT is lower than our forecast, even though the consensus revenue forecast is higher. This means that our expectations for Harvia's margin level are somewhat more positive than the consensus. 

No guidance from Harvia, outlook likely to remain positive

Harvia has not issued any guidance during its stock market history and does not make concrete comments on the future but only refers to its financial targets, which are a 10% revenue growth and an adjusted EBIT margin of over 20%. We expect Harvia’s growth outlook to remain good this year as well. This is supported by continued strong organic growth outside Europe, in addition to which growth is supported by the acquisition made in the US last summer. We also forecast European revenue to return to growth after three years of decline, helped by easier comparison figures and a gradual recovery in consumer demand. We predict that the company's margin will remain strong and, thanks to its robust gross margin, it will improve its EBIT margin further.