Harvia Q4'25 preview: Good quarter expected with exceptional comparison figures

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/10/2026 at 7:03 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance, 7 analysts (consensus)

Harvia will publish its 2025 financial statements bulletin on Thursday, February 12, 2026, and the company's earnings release can be followed here at 11:00 am EET. We expect the company's revenue growth to have continued at a moderate pace as the North American segment faces an exceptionally strong comparison period from the previous year. Conversely, profitability was exceptionally weak during the comparison period, and we anticipate a significant improvement in earnings in Q4.

Tough comparison period in North America slows revenue growth

We forecast Harvia's Q4 revenue to settle at 53.2 MEUR, an increase of about 5% year-on-year. This growth is markedly slower than earlier in the year, primarily due to the exceptional comparison period in North America; during the last quarter of 2024, the company ran aggressive campaigns in the region, boosting organic growth to approximately 40%. This year, the company has indicated that it will be more cautious with its promotions, and we estimate that North American revenue will be roughly on par with the comparison period. According to our estimates, growth will continue to be driven by the strong performance of the APAC & MEA region and the recovery in continental Europe.

We expect profitability to recover as material margin normalizes

We expect Harvia's adjusted EBIT to increase to 11.6 MEUR in Q4, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 21.8%. This would be a significant improvement from the 17.1% in the comparison period, which was weighed down by low-margin campaign sales at the time. We believe price increases will bolster the margin, enabling the company to offset the negative effects of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations on exports to the United States. However, we anticipate that the impact of tariffs will also be more evident in Q4 expenses than in previous quarters. We expect fixed costs to continue growing as the company continues investing in supporting growth, but strong revenue will bring positive operational leverage.

Outlook expected to remain positive without official guidance; we expect dividends to go up

In keeping with its tradition, Harvia does not provide short-term earnings guidance but refers to its financial targets, which include an average annual revenue growth of 10% and an adjusted EBIT margin of over 20%. We believe Harvia will reiterate its view of long-term market growth of over 5% and the company's ability to gain market share. Key points to watch out for in the report include comments on the US market situation, managing the impact of tariffs, and potential new initiatives in steam and infrared products.

The company's balance sheet has remained strong, and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA is well below the target level (2.5x), which gives Harvia a good position to continue its strategy of consolidation through complementary acquisitions. We also expect the company's board of directors to propose a higher dividend than in the previous year (EUR 0.75), in line with its policy of regular dividend growth, with our forecast at EUR 0.85 per share.