HCA Red Flag: Zealand Pharma losses far lower than expected thanks to royalty sale (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- Zealand Pharma reported an operating loss of DKK -54 million, boosted by a DKK 631 million royalty sale. Excluding the sale, the loss was DKK -685 million, close to the DKK -679 million estimate.
- The company narrowed its cost guidance to DKK 2.7–3.0 billion from DKK 2.7–3.3 billion. HCA expects estimates to remain largely unchanged and the shares to open unchanged.
- The ZYNERGY trial start moved to Q4'26 from Q2'26. Dates remain undisclosed for roughly DKK 2.6 billion in survodutide milestones, although Boehringer Ingelheim plans to apply for approval in 2027.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 12/11/2026, 06:09 GMT. Give feedback here.
| Red Flag – First reading of the financial report – AI-generated content HCA Red Flag: Zealand Pharma posts a much smaller loss than expected thanks to a royalty sale (AI) Zealand Pharma (ZEAL) – Q3'26 – November 12 The share down 25% in 3 months, over 40% below its peak over the LTM |
Overall assessment: Balanced
| Positive view | Balanced | Negative view |
The cost range has been narrowed to DKK 2.7 to 3.0 billion, close to the ~DKK 2.9 billion analysts expected, meaning estimates are unlikely to move and the share should open unchanged. A royalty sale of DKK 631 million flatters the quarter; without it, the operating loss was in line with expectations.
Red flags in the financial report
Royalty sale flatters an otherwise expected loss
Reported DKK -54 million · Without the sale DKK -685 million · Est. DKK -679 million
The sale of rights to rusfertide, a drug not developed by Zealand Pharma, generated a one-off gain of DKK 631 million. Without it, the operating loss – the loss before interest and taxes – was right in line with expectations, so estimates remain unchanged.
Combination trial ZYNERGY still has not started
Now: Q4'26 · Promised in May: Q2'26
The trial combining petrelintide, Zealand Pharma's obesity drug, and Roche's GLP-1 drug enicepatide is now set to start in the fourth quarter, two quarters later than promised in May. Every delay pushes a potential combination treatment further out.
Milestones for survodutide still lack a date
Application: 2027 · Milestones: unannounced
Licensing partner Boehringer Ingelheim will apply for approval of the obesity drug survodutide in 2027. The financial report does not date the milestones of around DKK 2.6 billion mentioned by CEO Adam Steensberg, so revenue estimates receive no new support.
Green flags in the financial report
The ceiling on this year's costs has been decreased
Now: DKK 2.7 to 3.0 billion · Previously: DKK 2.7 to 3.3 billion
The quarter cost DKK 689 million vs. expectations of ~DKK 817 million, and Zealand Pharma has decreased the ceiling of its cost range. The midpoint of DKK 2.85 billion slightly decreases this year's expected loss.
EU decision on Zeydovio is now set for the fourth quarter
Now: Q4'26 · Previously: H2'26
The EU's CHMP committee for medicinal products recommended Zeydovio (glepaglutide), Zealand Pharma's drug for short bowel syndrome, in September, and the final decision is now expected in the fourth quarter. With approval, Zealand Pharma will be in a stronger position in negotiations regarding a sales partner.
ZUPREME-2 started at a lower blood sugar level than disclosed
Now: 7.7% · Previously: 8.0%
The baseline for long-term blood sugar HbA1c in the trial of the obesity drug petrelintide has been corrected, meaning the drop of up to 0.65 percentage points came from a lower level. A lower baseline normally results in a smaller decrease and softens the comparison with competitors.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research commentary based solely on the company's published financial report. The commentary does not constitute investment consulting and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves the risk of loss. Seek professional consulting. /HC Andersen Capital, 07:07, 11/12/2026