Source: Inderes & Vara Research (7-8 estimates, consensus 7/10/2026)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/15/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

Kalmar will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday, July 22, at around 1 pm EEST. We expect the company's revenue and EBIT to have grown from the comparison period. By contrast, we expect order intake to have decreased slightly, but still to have been at a reasonable level. In the report, we will pay particular attention to the development of the Services segment after a soft start to the year, as well as to the company's more detailed market comments.

We expect revenue growth to have supported earnings

We expect Kalmar's revenue to have grown to 445 MEUR in Q2, which is also fully in line with consensus expectations. We expect both segments' revenues to have grown year-on-year, but with Equipment growing slightly faster than Services. In its call prior to the quiet period, the company commented that it does not expect North American spare parts sales, which weighed on Q1, to recover immediately, but rather for the situation to improve gradually.

We expect adjusted EBIT to have increased to 58.0 MEUR, supported by revenue growth. However, we expect the margin level to have remained stable despite the growth, which is influenced by, among other things, a weaker sales structure for Services than in the comparison period (lower North American spare parts sales). Our earnings and margin forecasts are also in line with consensus. On the lower lines, we expect financing expenses and taxes to have remained at normal levels, and we forecast reported EPS to have settled at EUR 0.67.

We forecast order intake to have decreased slightly year-on-year

Based on the company's pre-silent call, we estimate that the demand environment has remained relatively stable overall compared to the outlook provided with the Q1 results, despite the situation in the Middle East. However, the company has accumulated slightly fewer order announcements for the quarter than in the comparison period, according to our estimate. One should not draw overly far-reaching conclusions from individual announcements due to potential delays related to their timing. We believe the stable demand picture is also supported by relatively unchanged macroeconomic and container traffic forecasts, which, however, do not indicate a rapid market-driven recovery in the short term. However, in light of the fewer order announcements during the quarter, we have made minor adjustments to our internal order estimates for the current year, as we believe that there have been at least temporary delays in decision-making during the spring based on these announcements. We slightly lowered our Q2 order intake estimates and expect Kalmar's order intake to have settled at 429 MEUR (was 450 MEUR), which is a slightly more cautious estimate than the consensus (446 MEUR). However, for the full year, we still expect orders to grow by approximately 2%, and the small timing shifts we have made do not affect our operational forecasts.

Reiteration of guidance expected, focus on Services development

In its 2026 guidance, Kalmar expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5%, and we expect the company to reiterate this guidance in connection with the report. Based on the company's previous comments, the guidance can be seen as indicating a floor level of development. Our full-year margin estimate is currently 13.0% (vs. consensus 13.1%). Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, we expect Kalmar to reiterate its assessment that overall market demand will remain at the same level as in previous quarters over the next six months.

In the report, we will pay particular attention to the profitability development of the Services segment and management's comments on the recovery of the North American spare parts market. In addition, we will focus on the progress of the Driving Excellence program (annual gross savings of 40 MEUR achieved by the end of Q1). We will also monitor any updates on the impact of the Middle East situation on supply chains and customer activity, although direct effects have so far remained limited according to the company.