Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/17/2026 at 7:45 am EEST.

Source: Inderes and Modular Finance (consensus of 7 analysts)

Kempower will announce its Q2 result on Thursday, July 23 at around 8.30 am EEST.  We estimate that the company will continue to gain market share while margins weaken significantly relative to the strong comparison period. If the decline in margins were to halt or reverse as a result of the production efficiency program, the stock would likely react positively. The market has shown mixed trends so far this year, as the pace of electrification has accelerated in Europe’s passenger car fleet and in heavy-duty vehicles, while sales of electric passenger cars have declined in the US.

Market growth and market share gains drive order growth

We expect Kempower's order intake to have grown to 89 MEUR in Q2, a 20% year-over-year increase. In Europe, EV sales volumes grew 27% from January to June, while in North America, they decreased 20%. Europe's importance to the company remains dominant, so we estimate that the target market as a whole grew despite the weakness in North America. Additionally, progress toward heavy-duty electrification has continued. We estimate that Kempower has likely succeeded in increasing its orders in North America as well, as the company has long been gaining market share thanks to its expansion strategy and strong technology. Our order forecast is slightly more optimistic than the analyst consensus (consensus: 84 MEUR).

Profitability could moderately turn profitable

We estimate Q2 revenue to have grown by 24% to 77 MEUR on the back of a robust order book. The order book at the end of Q1 was 32% higher than a year ago. According to our estimates, this growth could push EBIT into a modestly positive territory at 0.6 MEUR (Q2’25 adj. EBIT: -1.7 MEUR; consensus expects a break-even result). However, we expect the gross margin to have declined by 4 percentage points to 46.4% (consensus: 46.0%), which will limit the improvement in earnings. The gross margin decline is due not only to market price competition, but also to Kempower’s own desire to gain market share from new customers in new regions. The company has an ongoing production efficiency program from which it expects to gain 10 MEUR in efficiency benefits during the current year in an effort to limit the decrease in margin.

Well-positioned for achieving guided growth

Kempower guides for 10–30% revenue growth and a significant improvement in adjusted EBIT for 2026. Our estimate anticipates around 26% revenue growth and a positive earnings turnaround in 2026, driven by the scalability of a cost structure optimized for significantly higher volumes than current ones. After a strong Q1 (revenue +54%), the estimate assumes only 20% revenue growth for the rest of the year, which is realistic given the strong order book. Our forecast is therefore closer to the upper end of the guidance range, and we do not see any significant risk of the guidance being lowered. In our view, the stock’s valuation is reasonable for a growth company assuming the company can continue to grow and stabilize its gross margin through efficiency measures. A significant fall in the margin below the level seen in previous quarters (~45–46%) could, in turn, alarm investors.