Kreate: Outlook for the year significantly stronger than our expectations

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/30/2026 at 9:05 am EET.

Kreate announced this morning that it is raising its 2026 revenue and EBITA guidance. The raised guidance is due to favorable performance in the first half of the year, strengthened outlook for the rest of the year, and the consolidation of KFS Finland Oy, a joint venture focused on special foundation construction, as a subsidiary from the beginning of April. We consider the raised guidance a significant positive signal, even though some of the growth is explained by a technical change in reporting methods. The new guidance significantly exceeds our current forecasts, and the earnings warning will lead to positive forecast revisions.

Guidance ranges significantly exceeded our estimates

Kreate now estimates 2026 revenue to be 510–550 MEUR, which would represent a 62–75% increase compared to 2025 revenue of 315 MEUR. The previous guidance anticipated revenue of 430–470 MEUR. Profitability guidance also increased significantly. The company now expects an EBITA of 18–22 MEUR, representing a 76–116% increase from the previous year's 10.2 MEUR. The previous EBITA guidance was 15–18 MEUR.

The new guidance is clearly above our current estimates, as we had expected 2026 revenue of 445.0 MEUR and an EBITA of 16.3 MEUR before the announcement. While the upward revision of guidance is partly due to the consolidation of KFS Finland, the company's communications regarding a strong operational order intake and improved outlook indicate that the underlying business is also developing more favorably than we anticipated.

The consolidation of KFS Finland changes reporting starting from Q2

The technical driver behind the raised guidance is a change in the KFS Finland Oy joint venture's shareholder agreement, which strengthens Kreate's control over the company. Kreate will assume the chairmanship of the board and a decisive vote, leading to the consolidation of the company as a subsidiary starting April 1, 2026. Previously, KFS was consolidated into the Kreate Group using the equity method.

The change in reporting method is estimated to increase Kreate's reported revenue by approximately 30 MEUR in the current financial year. The change has no impact on the Kreate Group's net profit for the financial year, but it will increase reported EBITA. According to the company, the relative profitability of the consolidated entity does not materially differ from the previous one at the EBITA level.

A strong order book provides good visibility for the rest of the year

From an operational perspective, Kreate is sending an encouraging message. According to the company, the beginning of the year has progressed favorably, the order book has grown well, and new projects have started as planned. The strong outlook is supported by a revenue mass of 480 MEUR, which the company estimates will materialize during the current year from the existing order book and projects under development.

The outlook has strengthened particularly in private sector clients. In our view, this reflects Kreate's strong position in, for example, data center projects and other demanding industrial construction, which compensate for the softness in other new construction. When combined with the SRV Infra acquisition and large transport infrastructure and railway projects, such as Kurkela–Kuusisto and Tampere's passenger rail yard, Kreate's growth outlook for 2026 is exceptionally strong.