Kreate Q3'26 flash comment: Largely unsurprising quarter following the profit warning
Summary
- Kreate's Q3 revenue doubled to 209.5 MEUR, aligning with estimates, driven by growth in structural engineering and transport infrastructure construction, despite a decline in Swedish revenue.
- EBITA tripled to 12.9 MEUR, surpassing estimates due to higher profitability, while EPS fell short due to unexpected non-controlling interests.
- The order book decreased by only 4% from Q2, contrary to expectations, with new projects totaling 110 MEUR, indicating strong order intake for a typically quiet quarter.
- Kreate reiterated its guidance for 2026, with revenue and EBITA targets appearing well-covered, though EPS forecasts face downward pressure due to increased non-controlling interests.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/26/2026 at 9:08 am EET.
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Diff-% | 2026 | |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 94.7 | 209.5 | 210.1 | 201.7 | 0% | 685.3 | |
| EBITDA | 5.9 | 16.6 | 16.3 | 14.9 | 2% | 47.1 | |
| EBITA | 4 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5% | 34 | |
| EBIT | 4 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5% | 34 | |
| Profit before tax | 3.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 0% | 31.4 | |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.3 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.94 | -10% | 2.64 | |
| EPS (reported) | 0.3 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.94 | -10% | 2.64 | |
| Revenue growth-% | 22.10% | 121.10% | 121.90% | 113.00% | -0.8 pp | 117.4% | |
| EBITA-% | 4.20% | 6.20% | 5.80% | 5.70% | 0.4 pp | 5.00% |
Source: Inderes & Vara (consensus, 3 analysts)
Kreate's revenue and earnings in Q3 rose to a record level, and the figures were largely in line with our estimates. EBITA exceeded our estimates due to slightly higher relative profitability. However, earnings per share fell short of our forecast, mainly due to a higher-than-expected share of non-controlling interests. The most positive surprise was the order book, which only decreased slightly from the record level in Q2, whereas we expected a more significant decline. The company reiterated the guidance it raised in September.
Revenue doubled as estimated
Kreate's revenue grew by 121% to 209.5 MEUR (Q3'25: 94.7 MEUR), which was in line with our estimate (210.1 MEUR). Structural engineering revenue increased to 154 MEUR (Q3’25 64 MEUR). Growth was driven by rock construction, private-sector foundation construction, and the consolidation of KFS Finland. Transport infrastructure construction revenue nearly doubled to 58 MEUR, supported by railway projects. The private sector's share of January–September revenue rose to 44% (35%), reflecting the growing weight of data centers. Kreate stated that it has worked on a total of 11 data center campuses during the current year. Contrary to our expectations, revenue in Sweden fell unexpectedly to 15.6 MEUR (Q3'25: 16.1 MEUR), whereas we had forecast clear growth.
EBITA margin rose above 6%
EBITA tripled to 12.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 4.0 MEUR), exceeding our estimate (12.3 MEUR). The EBITA margin rose to 6.2% (estimate 5.8%, Q2'26 5.0%). According to the company, profitability was supported by a record-high volume as well as successful project execution and risk management. Based on the company's statements, the expected profitability of the order book remained at normal levels. The result before taxes was exactly as we had forecast (11.8 MEUR), despite higher-than-expected financial expenses. Diluted EPS was ultimately EUR 0.87, while our forecast was EUR 0.99. The discrepancy was primarily due to a larger-than-expected non-controlling interest (1.5 MEUR), relating principally to KFS Finland.
Cash flow was at an exceptionally strong level. Free cash flow from operating activities rose to 29.4 MEUR (Q3'25 0.5 MEUR), and net debt decreased from 35.9 MEUR at the turn of the year to 27.6 MEUR. The net debt-to-rolling EBITDA ratio was 0.7x.
Order book declined less than expected
The order book stood at 848.5 MEUR, a mere 4% (37 MEUR) decrease from the record level in Q2. In our preview, we estimated that the order book would decrease more clearly, as Kreate had announced only around 15 MEUR worth of disclosed contracts during the quarter. However, the order book received new projects totaling 110 MEUR, most of which were subject to non-disclosure agreements or whose values were not disclosed. These include the earthworks contract for QTS's data center campus in Forssa and the foundation work for the Government Palace. Therefore, order intake was, in our view, good for a traditionally quiet quarter.
Guidance looks well covered
Kreate reiterated the guidance it raised in September for 2026 of 670-710 MEUR revenue and 32-36 MEUR EBITA. Revenue from January to September was 492.5 MEUR and EBITA was 23.7 MEUR, meaning the guidance requires revenue of 178–218 MEUR and an EBITA result of 8.3–12.3 MEUR for Q4. Our full-year estimates correspond to Q4 revenue of approximately 193 MEUR and EBITA of 10.3 MEUR.
The company estimates that 195 MEUR of the end-September order book will be recognized during the current year. A year earlier, the corresponding estimate was 87 MEUR, and Q4'25 revenue ultimately came in at 95 MEUR. If a corresponding amount of revenue is once again generated from outside the order book, Q4 revenue would rise to over 200 MEUR. We therefore see slight upside in our Q4 revenue estimate. Conversely, our EPS forecast is under downward pressure as we increase our estimate for the non-controlling interest due to KFS Finland's strong development.