Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/19/2026 at 8:28 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, 3 estimates (consensus)

Kreate will publish its Q3 report on Monday, October 26. We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have grown extremely strongly from the comparison period. This growth is driven by the realization of the record-high order book, successful project execution, and inorganic growth. The company raised its guidance for the current year for the third time already in September, and thus we expect the company to reiterate its outlook. In the report, we will focus particularly on the development of the order book and margins, as well as market commentary.

Revenue more than doubles in our forecasts, driven by strong order book

We forecast Kreate’s Q3 revenue to have grown by as much as 122% year-on-year to 210 MEUR (H1'25: 95 MEUR). There are several drivers behind this growth. These include the SRV Infra acquisition, completed at the outset of the year; KFS Finland, consolidated as a subsidiary since the beginning of April; and the rapid realization of the order book (which stood at a record-high 886 MEUR at the end of Q2). Organic growth is broadly supported by data center construction, defense projects, and more traditional transport infrastructure and rail projects, among others. Geographically, in addition to Finland, we expect the Swedish business to have continued its very strong growth as well, with revenue rising to 27 MEUR (Q3'25: 16 MEUR).

Growth and strong project management lift earnings to a new level once again

We expect Kreate's Q3 EBITA to have improved significantly from the comparison period, settling at 12.3 MEUR (Q3'25: 4.0 MEUR). This corresponds to a margin of 5.8% (Q3'25: 4.2%). We estimate that this substantial increase in profitability is driven by exceptional volume leverage and effective management of project risks, as also emphasized in connection with the profit warning. In its Q2 report already, the company demonstrated its ability to execute ongoing projects more efficiently than expected, offsetting front-loaded growth investments and recruitment. In the lower lines, we expect net financial expenses to have remained moderate and forecast reported EPS to rise to EUR 0.99 (Q3'25: EUR 0.30).

Interest in order book and outlook

Kreate estimates this year's revenue to be between 670 MEUR and 710 MEUR and EBITA to be between 32 MEUR and 36 MEUR. Based on actual results from the beginning of the year, the guidance requires revenue of 387–427 MEUR and an EBITA of 21–25 MEUR for the second half of the year. Our estimates (H2'26e revenue of 402 MEUR and EBITA of 23 MEUR) are roughly in the middle of the guidance ranges.

In the report, in addition to the actual earnings figures, we will monitor the order intake and comments on next year's outlook. We estimate that the order book turns over quickly, as our Q3 revenue estimate (210 MEUR) corresponds to nearly a quarter of the order book at the end of Q2. Thus, maintaining the order book at the record level of Q2 would necessitate an order intake of over 200 MEUR, whereas Kreate announced contracts published during the quarter worth only around 15 MEUR. In addition, the third quarter has been quiet for the company's order intake in recent years. However, the number of announced contracts likely underestimates the true order intake because, at customers' request, the company does not announce all its projects, including data center and defense projects, which have grown in significance in the order book recently. In its Q2 results, the company estimated that 336 MEUR of the order book as of the end of June will still be recognized during the current year. Reaching the lower limit of the guidance therefore requires approximately 50 MEUR in revenue from orders won and recognized as revenue during the remainder of the year, compared to our forecast of approximately 65 MEUR. Based on this, we estimate that the company booked a reasonable number of new orders in the third quarter, a significant portion of which may be unannounced projects, despite the slow public order flow.

Following a record-breaking start to the year, we believe attention is increasingly shifting toward 2027, for whose earnings levels the development of the order book is pivotal. In our view, the growing importance of data centers will tie earnings development more closely than before to individual large projects, and we consider the continuity of earnings following the 2026 step-up to be the key question for the stock.