Mandatum Q3'25 preview: No signs of growth stagnation

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/7/2025 at 8:40 am EET.

Source: Inderes, Vara Research (consensus)

Mandatum will publish its Q3 report on Tuesday morning at around 8.30 am EET. We expect Mandatum's Q3 earnings to align with those of the comparison period. We estimate that positive momentum in investment product sales continued, and that earnings growth in asset management, which is key to the company's value, remained strong. In the report, our attention is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the steps for the coming years regarding the balance sheet and profit distribution are very clear after the updated strategy and sales of PE investments. We will go through Mandatum's earnings in a live broadcast in the morning starting at 08:25 am EET on inderesTV (in Finnish).

New sales are Mandatum's main driver

Ahead of the earnings day, we have slightly raised our Q3 net finance result estimates. Consequently, our forecast for Mandatum's current year's profit before tax rose by 2%.

Mandatum's investment story is based on asset management growth and strong profit distribution. Profit distribution largely results from the gradual sale of the company's investment assets, which simultaneously damages the group's earnings development. However, with strong sales continuing in asset management, Mandatum has the potential to turn its result around already in the coming years, so the growth rate of assets under management is by far the most important single indicator for investors. At the quarterly level, fluctuations are to be expected due to market sentiment, among other factors, so we will especially look for signs of progress in the competitiveness of the company's asset management product and service offerings in the earnings report. We consider the overall growth outlook for the asset management market to be favorable, even in a longer-term view, so high-quality operators have the potential to achieve even strong growth figures.

We expect earnings growth in asset management to have remained strong

We expect Mandatum's Q3 fee income to have grown significantly year-on-year to 20.1 MEUR (Q3’24: 18.1 MEUR). Fee income development is supported in our estimates by increased assets under management and improved cost efficiency. As for sales, it will be interesting to see if the company has been able to continue its strong sales to institutional clients as in previous quarters. It should be noted that new sales are typically slower in Q3 than in other quarters due to the summer holiday season. In this context, our estimate of 130 MEUR would be an excellent performance again. As for products, the focus is likely still on the company's strength in fixed rate funds. Our forecast for assets under management at the end of Q3 is 14.8 BNEUR (Q2’25: 14.4 BNEUR).

In addition to the financial figures, as usual, we focus on management's comments on the sales outlook for investment products. Commentary is likely to remain largely optimistic, as investors' risk appetite appears to have generally increased and comments from peers on new sales have mostly been positive.

Fairly normal investment returns expected this quarter

The result of term life insurance mainly consists of the contractual service margin (CSM). The CSM amount to be earned is affected by actual claims experience, which fluctuates somewhat from quarter to quarter. We expect the result related to risk policies to be 3.7 MEUR in Q3, which is broadly in line with our estimate of a normal level. During the comparison period, the result of risk life insurance was boosted by a one-off gain, which was recorded from the transfer of the portfolio to If P&C.

Our net finance result forecast is 25.4 MEUR. The interest rate movements observed during the quarter should moderately support the result of the with-profit portfolio. Following the sale of Saxo and Enento, PE investments on the balance sheet should no longer generate substantial investment returns. For Q3, we expect the group's profit before taxes to be 44.0 MEUR and earnings per share to be EUR 0.07.