Source: Inderes

Metacon will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday, August 12. We expect the company to report continued strong year-on-year revenue growth driven by the execution of its electrolysis project backlog, while we anticipate earnings will remain negative due to the ongoing commercial scale-up. Our focus will be on the company's order intake and its commentary on the sales pipeline, which are crucial for driving future revenue visibility.

Revenue growth fueled by project backlog execution

We expect Metacon to report Q2 revenue of 89 MSEK (Q2'25: 57 MSEK), representing a year-on-year growth of around 58%. We anticipate that the revenue will be primarily driven by the continued execution and revenue recognition of the company's major electrolysis projects, particularly the 50 MW Motor Oil Hellas project in Greece and the 7.5 MW Elektra Power project in Romania. As the company executes these projects, we expect the expanding installed base to gradually lay the groundwork for future recurring aftermarket services. However, as Metacon has not announced any new large-scale orders recently, we believe that revenue visibility for the coming years remains low. Consequently, we will closely monitor the Q2 order intake and sales pipeline commentary. We believe new order wins are essential to broaden and diversify the revenue base and support our estimates for the coming years.

Earnings remain in the red during commercial scale-up

We forecast a Q2 EBIT of -10.8 MSEK (Q2'25: -11.1 MSEK). Although the expanding revenue base provides some operating leverage, we believe profitability continues to be weighed down by the high fixed costs associated with the company's commercial scale-up. Furthermore, we expect high variable costs, primarily raw materials and consumables, to scale in line with project deliveries, keeping the operating result negative. On the financial front, the recently announced capital raise, consisting of a rights issue and a convertible loan from Fenja, improved Metacon's liquidity and, in our view, mitigated short-term financing risks, yielding gross proceeds of around 112.4 MSEK. In our view, this funding provides the necessary runway to execute the current order book and could help convert parts of the sales pipeline without immediate liquidity concerns.

Order flow and project execution remain key watchpoints

Metacon does not typically provide financial guidance, and we do not expect a change in this policy with the Q2 report. Our primary focus remains on the company's ability to secure new large-scale orders, which we view as the main catalyst for improving visibility into future growth and earnings. While the recent capital raise has mitigated short-term financing risks, we believe a sustained order flow is essential to reach profitability and an eventual self-funded growth model.

In the upcoming report, we will be looking for updates on the progress of the current order book and the broader demand environment in the European green hydrogen market. Additionally, we look forward to any further details regarding the recently announced 10 MW reference plant in Uppsala, which we view as a powerful live sales tool to drive future commercialization. Overall, until new significant orders are confirmed, we believe uncertainty regarding the growth trajectory for the latter half of 2026 and beyond remains high.