Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/1/2026 at 2:43 pm EEST.

Nightingale Health announced on Wednesday evening that it had signed a service agreement with the Michael J. Fox Foundation worth 6.5 MUSD (approximately 5.8 MEUR). To the best of our knowledge, this is the company’s most valuable commercial project to date and demonstrates once again the company’s ability to carry out large-scale research projects. The research business maintains Nightingale's competitive position and is commercially significant in the short term because it generates substantial cash flow for the company while critical healthcare partnerships for long-term growth are still maturing.

Although the contract is substantial for the company's current scale, corresponding in size to several small projects, we had already anticipated in our estimates that the company would secure new projects in its research business. Therefore, we are not changing our estimates immediately, but depending on the project delivery time and margin structure, our short-term estimates may still be refined as a result of the agreement. Nevertheless, the agreement provides greater clarity regarding our short-term growth forecasts, and we believe the positive market reaction is justified.

Large-scale proteomics study supports brain health research

Under the agreement, Nightingale will analyze 60,000 UK Biobank blood samples utilizing Alamar Biosciences' NULISAseq Neuro 220 Panel. The panel focuses on neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's, which are increasing rapidly as a global health burden. The new protein biomarker data generated by Nightingale will be submitted to UK Biobank in accordance with the foundation’s guidelines and made available to the wider research community in 2027. Nightingale has previously analyzed samples from all 500,000 UK Biobank participants using its own technology, and the data now being generated will supplement this database. We believe that this agreement is a testament to Nightingale’s continued strong position in the field of international medical research and its role as a partner to major biobanks.

Agreement reduces short-term estimate risks, although its earnings impact is still partly uncertain

Nightingale’s revenue for the financial year ending on June 30, 2026 (2026) was 5.5 MEUR. The company has established revenue guidance of at least 10 MEUR for the current fiscal year. We have estimated that achieving this target will require significant new deals in addition to existing projects (such as the 2.4 MEUR Aalborg project carried over to the new fiscal year). The newly announced contract, valued at around 5.8 MEUR, fulfills a significant part of our near-term revenue estimates (2027e: 10.2 MEUR vs. 2028e: 11.0 MEUR), although the revenue recognition schedule for the contract is still uncertain (presumably during the 2027–2028 financial years). The project margin may also be lower than our current estimate because the project involves delivering a partner's analysis, which has a lower margin for Nightingale than its own analysis. Therefore, the project's impact on our earnings estimates is also unclear for the time being. In our view, securing new contracts and ensuring sufficient cash flow as the company grows are currently at the core of the company’s investment story. In any case, the agreement eliminates the uncertainty surrounding this issue, thus improving the stock's short-term risk profile.

Research business buys time for healthcare partnerships to mature

We have deemed the role of the research business in Nightingale's long-term growth story to be less significant, as healthcare partnerships and growing their recurring sample flow are at the core of the company's strategy and value creation. However, in the short term, large research projects remain the backbone of the company's revenue. They generate cash flow and provide the company with more time to develop relationships with healthcare customers, which have been slow to develop thus far. Even in connection with the 2.4 MEUR multiomics order from Aalborg University in autumn 2025, we estimated that multiomics could enable the research business to establish a stronger business foundation than we had previously anticipated. The newly signed proteomics agreement is worth approximately 2.4 times as much as the Aalborg project and supports this view. Nevertheless, this agreement does not alter our long-term perspective that the company's value creation depends on sample flow from clinical customers. Thus far, Terveystalo is the segment's only significant customer, and there are no signs yet of a commercial ramp-up for the partnerships with the highest potential (Pathology Asia and Boston Heart).