NYAB Q1 on Friday: Focus on this year's revised guidance

Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 5/10/2023 at 6:39 am.

NYAB will publish its Q1 report on Friday. We expect the company's revenue to be showing year-on-year growth in the seasonally slowest quarter, reflecting the timing of the merger. By contrast, we forecast the operating result to be around the level of the comparison period. Reflecting the seasonal nature of business, the focus of our attention in the report is therefore the revised guidance for the current year.

Reported revenue grows strongly in the seasonally slowest quarter

We forecast NYAB's Q revenue to have risen well above the comparison period, reflecting the timing of the merger (NYAB Sverige and Skarta Group figures combined from Q2'22 onwards), to EUR 37.2 million. However, we expect growth to have been brisk also in relation to comparable pro forma revenue (Q1'22 pro forma revenue: 29.3 MEUR). We expect growth to be supported particularly by the strong order book at the end of 2022 (239 MEUR vs. pro forma 2021 order book of 193 MEUR), although there is uncertainty about the exact periodicity of the order book.

We expect the result to be at the level of the comparison period

We expect NYAB's operating result before amortization and depreciation of intangible assets (EBITA) to have been on a seasonally adjusted level of EUR -1.3 million (Q1'22 pro forma EBITA: -2.2 MEUR). By contrast, we expect operating profit to be burdened by goodwill amortization of around EUR 5.8 million, which we forecast to have settled at EUR -7.1 million. On the bottom line, we expect that the result will be weighed down by small losses in associates and financial expenses at around normal levels. We estimate taxes to have been zero in line with the loss-making result. Reflecting this overall picture, we expect reported EPS to land at EUR -0.01.

Focus on revised guidance

Reflecting the seasonal nature of business, the focus of the Q1 report is on the company's revised guidance for the current year. NYAB has so far issued a guidance that it expects its revenue in 2023 to exceed EUR 325 million. However, the company said in the Q4'22 report that it would provide more detailed financial guidance in the Q1 report. Before the report, we expect the company's revenue to reach EUR 336 million and EBITA to reach EUR 30.8 million this year. In addition to the guidance and figures, the report draws our attention to possible comments on the progress of the profitability turnaround of the Finnish operations and the general market situation.