Source: Inderes

NYAB will publish its Q3 report on Wednesday, November 4, and the earnings webcast can be followed here at 10:00 am CET. We expect strong top-line growth and margin expansion driven by high production volumes in the Civil Engineering segment. Our focus will be on the significant expected order intake, the development of the order book, and management's commentary on the market outlook and recent industrial contract wins.

Strong revenue growth driven by Civil Engineering execution

We forecast NYAB's Q3 revenue to grow by 17% year-on-year to 176 MEUR (Q3'25: 151 MEUR). After a weak Q1, when an unusually large share of projects was in the design and engineering phases where revenue recognition is low, the top line picked up clearly in Q2 (+19% y/y to 162 MEUR) as this work moved into execution. We expect this momentum to continue in Q3, which, alongside the fourth quarter, is seasonally the strongest of the year in infrastructure construction. Growth is expected to be driven entirely by the Civil Engineering segment (Inderes est. +24% y/y), where our revenue estimate for the unit corresponds to ~30% of the record 502 MEUR order book at the end of Q2 (+18% y/y). The backlog growth has been broad-based, led by railway projects such as the Bergslagen and Mälardalen contracts and the North Bothnia Line. We believe market conditions in Sweden remain the most favorable of NYAB's markets. In Finland, we expect the Mikkeli data center project to be the main growth driver.

Meanwhile, we expect the Consulting segment's revenue to continue declining year-on-year (Inderes est. -12% y/y). As the segment bills by the hour and has no order book, its revenue is essentially driven by the number of consultants on assignment, which fell from an average of 703 in 2025 to 606 at the end of Q2. With an LTM book-to-bill of only 0.7x and continued soft activity in the Norwegian offshore and renewables markets, we see little near-term support for volumes.

We also expect NYAB's roughly 294 MEUR share of the Uppsala tramway to enter the reported order book from Q3. As the joint venture is equity-accounted, it will not contribute to revenue or EBIT, with the result instead flowing through the bottom line as share of profit from joint ventures. The effect on the reported order book is discussed below.

Margin expansion supported by favorable mix and operating leverage

We estimate Q3 EBIT to reach 14.0 MEUR (Q3'25: 11.3 MEUR), translating to an EBIT margin of 7.9% (Q3'25: 7.5%). The anticipated margin expansion is primarily driven by improved operating leverage as production volumes peak during the seasonally strong quarter. Furthermore, we expect profitability to be supported by a favorable project mix, particularly in the Swedish Civil Engineering segment, as a deliberate shift toward higher-margin niches (such as rail, waterworks, and power lines) increasingly flows through to the bottom line. Conversely, we expect the Consulting segment's margins (rolling 12-month: 2.4%) to remain under pressure due to the aforementioned market softness and ongoing integration costs, though we will look for any early signs of the targeted profitability improvements.

Significant order intake and data center wins in focus

NYAB does not provide financial guidance, making the order book and qualitative management commentary the primary indicators of future performance. This quarter, however, the headline order book figure will be a somewhat distorted guide to commercial momentum. Our 225 MEUR Civil Engineering intake estimate (Q3'25: 102 MEUR), excluding the Uppsala share, is dominated by the 142 MEUR Phase 2 contract for Svenska kraftnät's Letsi to Svartbyn power line, signed in September. The order book opened the quarter at a record 502 MEUR. After our estimated order intake, and net of the ~152 MEUR of Civil Engineering revenue we expect to be recognized, the order book would reach ~575 MEUR. Including the Uppsala contract would lift the reported figure to ~870 MEUR, roughly 73% above the Q2 level. If Uppsala is included, we would therefore caution against reading the headline order book, or the implied book-to-bill ratio, as evidence of accelerating order momentum.

Additionally, we will look for qualitative comments on the market outlook and recent contract wins, particularly the early works agreement for a planned 200 MW data center campus in Utajärvi, Finland. While the initial contract value is undisclosed, data center projects typically carry higher margins. NYAB's proven track record of converting early-stage involvement into substantial execution contracts positions it favorably for subsequent construction phases. Finally, we will listen for updates on the remaining early-phase pipeline, such as the potential conversion of the Early Works Agreements with SSAB in Luleå, which management previously expected to materialize during the second half of the year.