NYAB Q4’25 flash comment: Revenue in line, but margins showed strength

Source: Inderes

NYAB delivered Q4 revenues in line with our estimate, while EBIT surpassed our estimates.  Organic revenue growth was primarily driven by high production activity in Sweden and the full-quarter contribution from the Consulting segment. Profitability benefited from improved project execution and faster-than-expected progress in absorbing the expanded workforce. The order backlog remains at a high level following recent large contract wins, while management commentary suggests no significant changes in the market outlook in 2026. Cash flow was also seasonally strong, supporting the company's financial flexibility, with the board proposing a dividend of 0.014 per share for 2026 (2.3% dividend yield). NYAB also announced yesterday, after close, that the company has postponed its planned listing transfer to Nasdaq Stockholm's main market, which was previously expected to occur during Q1 2026. The Board has not yet established a new timeline for the transfer.

Top-line growth in line with expectations...

NYAB's revenue grew by 32% (y/y) in Q4 to 154 MEUR (Q4'24: 117 MEUR), which was in line with our estimate of 156 MEUR. Revenue growth was primarily driven by the full-quarter consolidation of Dovre in the Consulting segment (~28 MEUR), while the Civil Engineering segment also contributed with solid organic growth. The company's order backlog remained at a high level (Q4’25: 381 MEUR), although moderating from the peak levels seen earlier in the year. The book-to-bill ratio increased slightly to 0.9x in Q4 (Q3’25: 0.8x, Q4’24: 0.5x), but remained below 1.0x, indicating that order intake continued to lag somewhat behind project execution during the quarter.

The Civil Engineering segment's organic growth amounted to 10% year-on-year, which was in line with our estimate. However, on a country-unit level, Sweden significantly outperformed our expectations (110 MEUR vs Inderes estimate: 101 MEUR), as production rates exceeded our projections within both power and infrastructure projects. On the other hand, Finland came in notably weaker than we had anticipated (18 MEUR vs Inderes estimate: 28 MEUR), where we note that the improvement in project timings did not materialize to the extent we had anticipated. As such, volumes in Finland continue to reflect the cautious market environment, with recovery signs remaining gradual. The Consulting segment maintained stable performance on top line and relative to our estimate, and the order intake increased notably. On a pro forma basis, we estimate that the Group's organic revenue growth amounted to around 9% in Q4.

...but EBIT exceeded our forecasts

The company reported an EBIT of 12.7 MEUR (Q4'24: 12.3 MEUR), which beat our estimates (11.9 MEUR) by 7%. On a margin level, EBIT came in at 8.2% (Q4'24: 10.5%), above our forecast of 7.6%. We think the positive surprise suggests that the capacity absorption is progressing somewhat faster than we anticipated, with the expanded workforce being integrated into the project portfolio more efficiently than expected. Additionally, project execution appears to have been strong across the portfolio.

The better-than-expected margin development is encouraging, as it indicates that the front-loaded capacity investments made in H1'25 are starting to normalize sooner than we projected. However, the Consulting segment's margin came in short of our estimate, where the quarter-on-quarter margin decline was higher than expected (2.6% vs Inderes estimate: 4.1%), following the strong margin level in Q3’25 of 4.5%. Overall, the reported margin level is healthy and suggests that the path to margin normalization in 2026 could be smoother than initially estimated.

At the bottom line, net profit aligned with our estimates despite the EBIT beat and was due to higher-than-expected finance expenses. Free cash flow was strong, as expected (19 MEUR, Q4’24: 18 MEUR), with the seasonally favorable Q4 typically delivering working capital release accumulated during the high-activity summer months. Following the strong cash generation in Q4, NYAB is now back with a net cash position, supporting its financial flexibility and ability to fund its growth strategy while distributing a solid dividend yield. For 2026, the board proposed a dividend of EUR 0.014 (0.010), corresponding to a dividend yield of ~2.3%.

Market outlook in 2026 remains favorable overall

The company reiterated that the operating environment in core markets continues to show good demand levels and high tender activity, although conditions vary across its geographies and segments. Sweden continues to show high activity levels, while Finland remains more cautious, and Norway shows a more normalized level. Regarding Finland, despite the current cautious environment, we think the recent Class A approval in Fingrid's supplier register and planned transmission grid investments in the country could provide a positive backdrop for potential revenue acceleration during 2026. In Sweden, we believe the continued robust tender activity and the green industrial transformation further support a positive outlook for NYAB in 2026.

We feel that the recent large contract wins materially de-risk our 2026 estimates and provide better revenue visibility. Before the Q4 report, we had estimated revenue of 614 MEUR (+12% y/y) in 2026, with an EBIT margin of 6.3% (FY25e adj. EBIT: 6.0%*), reflecting moderation from the exceptional growth in 2025 but with improving margin optimization as growth normalizes. Following the report, we currently see some upward pressure on primarily our margin estimates, but management's commentary on margin normalization during 2026 after the capacity build-up effects from the past year will be of particular interest during the company’s webcast, which can be followed here.

*Excluding the impact of one-off costs in Q1'25