Relais Q3'26 preview: Impact of efficiency measures yet to show
Summary
- Relais is expected to report Q3 results with revenue growth driven by acquisitions and slight organic growth, but a decline in earnings compared to the previous year.
- Q3'26 revenue is forecasted to grow by 8% year-on-year to 109 MEUR, with significant contributions from inorganic growth and acquisitions, particularly in the Commercial Vehicle Services and Products and Solutions segments.
- Profitability is anticipated to decline, with EBITA expected to decrease to 10.2 MEUR, corresponding to a lower EBITA margin of 9.3%, due to soft demand in Norway and organic growth investments.
- Relais is focusing on operational efficiency measures to improve profitability and return on capital, with management's comments on these efforts and market conditions being closely monitored.
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| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | High | Low | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 101 | 109 | 113 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 465 | ||
| EBITDA | 14.4 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 66.9 | ||
| Adjusted EBITA | 10.9 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 43.4 | ||
| Profit before tax | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 21.3 | ||
| EPS (reported) | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0.69 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 34.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | ###### | - | ###### | 21.2% | ||
| EBITA-% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | - | 9.3% | ||||
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 4 estimates)
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/26/2026 at 8:34 am EET.
Relais will publish its Q3 results next Wednesday at around 9:00 am EET. We expect revenue to have continued to grow, driven by acquisitions and slight organic growth, but earnings to have declined from the comparison period. Our focus in the report will be on the efficiency measures the company is working on and their effectiveness, as well as management’s comments on the market situation across its businesses. Our recent extensive report on Relais can be read here.
Organic and inorganic growth drivers
We forecast Relais' Q3’26 revenue to have grown by 8% year-on-year to 109 MEUR. The growth is driven by organic growth, but especially by inorganic growth across all segments. We expect Commercial Vehicle Services to have grown (+11%), driven in particular by acquisitions, while we estimate that rising fuel prices have caused softness in customer demand, especially in Norway. The Qpax acquisition will provide another small growth boost to Technical Wholesale (+3%), which we also expect to have grown organically, supported by market growth. In relative terms, we expect the highest growth rate from the Products and Solutions segment (+19%), largely thanks to the Tershine acquisition.
We expect profitability to have declined year-on-year
We expect Relais' Q3 EBIT excluding PPA depreciation (EBITA) to have decreased from the comparison period to 10.2 MEUR. This corresponds to a lower EBITA margin of 9.3%. We forecast profitability to have declined in the two largest segments. We estimate that Commercial Vehicle Services suffered in particular from soft demand in Norway. Instead, we expect the profitability of Technical Wholesale to have decreased due to the organic growth investments seen already in the previous quarter. From the Products and Solutions segment, we expect good profitability roughly on par with the comparison period. Due to the decline in operating profit and the interest expenses of the hybrid bond, we expect Q3 EPS to have fallen significantly from the comparison period.
Focus on operational efficiency measures now
In line with its guidance policy, Relais does not have earnings guidance. We expect the current year's operational earnings to grow, but in our estimation, the company still has room for improvement compared to the current year's earnings level. This is driven by, among other things, realizing the benefits of organic growth investments in current product businesses and profitability improvements in certain businesses that are underperforming by the company's standards. As part of its recent strategy, the company has indeed communicated that it has set a target bar for all businesses, which some of the companies are currently below. We therefore estimate that actions are being taken on several fronts within the Group to improve profitability and return on capital. On the report day, we will follow management's comments on the progress of these measures with particular interest, as well as market commentary in general.