SAAB announced that it has received an order of ~2.6 BNSEK from the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration (FMV) for the continuation of concept studies for future fighter aircraft systems in the years 2025-27. The order is strategically important for long-term competitiveness, but its scope and size are in line with our expectations, so we leave our estimates unchanged.

Follow-on order secures the development of future aerial capabilities

The order of ~2.6 BNSEK continues and expands the agreement signed in March 2024, but it is small relative to Aeronautics backlog as of Q2’25 and LTM revenue, ~41.7 BNSEK and ~17.8 BNSEK, respectively. It funds concept studies for manned and unmanned solutions, technology development, and demonstrators for 2025-27. The work will be carried out in close cooperation with the FMW, the Swedish Armed Forces, and other industry partners. Strategically, it is important for Aeronautics as it secures customer funding for the development of next-generation fighter capabilities.

A largely expected project continuation

Given SAAB’s ongoing collaboration with FMV on aerial systems R&D and the clear need to advance smart and autonomous airborne fighter systems, the order is not a surprise. In our view, developing future fighter systems with AI support for pilots and autonomous variants is essential for Aeronautics to maintain SAAB’s standing as a provider of highly capable aerial weapon systems. The continued collaboration is vital for competitiveness in air systems, has the potential to open new and large revenue streams, and further strengthens the relationship with Saab’s most important customer. We view these collaborations positively because they spread development risk, support option value for future production, and improve the company’s long-term positioning.

The annual value of the order, about 0.9 BNSEK, is small relative to our estimated 2026 revenue for Aeronautics and the Group, about 21.7 BNSEK and 88.1 BNSEK respectively. As this is customer funded R&D rather than production volumes, its direct impact on revenue and profitability margins is limited, although it preserves a long-term option for future production. As a continuation order, it strengthens our confidence in the company’s medium- and long-term growth and development prospects, but it does not warrant changes to our estimates at this stage.