Scanfil Q1'26 flash comment: Starting speed didn't quite reach the expected RPM

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/23/2026 at 9:03 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Scanfil released its Q1 report this morning. Although figures for the first part of the year rose significantly, driven by acquisitions, they still fell short of our forecasts for every line of the income statement. Scanfil reiterated its guidance as expected. Our preliminary assessment is that the report will not lead to significant revisions to our near-term forecasts for Scanfil. However, Scanfil's share price has risen strongly recently. The stock's reaction to today's report may be negative relative to the general market as the Q1 operational figures were somewhat lower than our estimates, and also, as we understand it, those of other analysts.  

Revenue saw a level adjustment driven by acquisitions but fell short of our forecast

Scanfil’s revenue grew by 19% year-on-year in Q1 to 229 MEUR, which was 5% below our estimate. The ADCO and MB acquisitions accounted for about 14 percentage points of the growth, and currencies created a headwind of just under 2 percentage points for the top line. Organic growth was slightly below 7%. However, the forecast miss was more likely due to the contribution of acquisitions, although it is difficult to make an exact calculation of this. The fastest growth by region came naturally from North America and Central Europe, boosted by acquisitions, though all regions grew organically. The revenue share of the new customer segment, Aerospace & Defense, was 9% after the acquisitions, fairly close to our estimate of around 10%.  

Earnings improved, but our forecasts were even higher than that

Scanfil's adjusted EBITA rose with revenue and acquisitions to 15.5 MEUR. Operating earnings accrual also fell short of our forecast due to revenue being lower than we had estimated and profitability standing at 6.8% (adj. EBITA-%), which was slightly below our expectations. According to the company, profitability in Q1 was still being held back by new product introductions, although these will support volumes later in the year. Of the regions, Northern Europe exceeded our earnings forecast, but the pace of improvement in other regions was slower than we had anticipated. On the lower lines, PPA amortization (which we treat as an adjustment item) increased due to acquisitions, and financial expenses also rose due to the additional debt incurred for the acquisitions. However, both items were slightly lower than our forecasts, though the tax rate slightly exceeded our estimate, and minor integration costs were recorded as well in Q1.  Consequently, Scanfil’s reported EPS for Q1 rose well above the figure for the comparison period to EUR 0.15 per share, though it fell short of our forecast by 2 cents, or 13%.

In terms of cash flow, the report was weaker, in line with expectations. Cash flow from operating activities was -2 MEUR as Scanfil tied up working capital in the early part of the year, which is typical of the industry. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose marginally above the upper limit of the company’s target range to 1.6x at the end of Q1, but we expect Scanfil to return to its target range shortly. Overall, the company’s balance sheet is in a sound position.

Guidance remained unchanged as expected

Scanfil reiterated its guidance for the current year, in which it expects its revenue in 2026 to be 940–1,060 MEUR and its adjusted EBITA to be 64–78 MEUR. Our forecasts (and, in our view, those of other analysts) were roughly in the middle of the range before the report. Overall, the situation in the Middle East has not yet appeared to have significant indirect effects on Scanfil. However, the company's investment-driven demand is somewhat post-cyclical. In our assessment, geopolitical risks related to Scanfil's operating environment are elevated in the short term, though these uncertainties may also benefit the energy and defense sectors. Internally, we believe that Scanfil remains fundamentally sound. Our preliminary assessment is that there will be little to no pressure to revise our forecasts for the coming years following the report's release.