Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/19/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Scanfil will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 23, at 8:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have continued its strong growth path from the beginning of the year, particularly due to the MB and ADCO acquisitions, as well as moderate organic growth. Although we expect the operational result to have improved significantly due to acquisitions and increased volume, our Q3 profitability estimate remains stable in an increasingly inflationary business environment. The company recently reiterated its guidance for the current year in connection with its Capital Markets Day, and we expect the guidance to remain unchanged in the Q3 report as well. In our view, Scanfil's share is tolerably priced relative to its positive growth and earnings growth outlook (2027e: adj.  EV/EBIT 12x), so we are not making any changes to our view on the company at this time.

Revenue to continue on a strong growth trajectory, driven especially by acquisitions

We forecast Scanfil's Q3 revenue to have grown by almost 26% year-on-year to 241 MEUR (Q3’25: 191 MEUR). As in previous quarters, the clear main driver of growth is inorganic, as the MB and ADCO acquisitions, which were integrated earlier in the year, provide significant support to the top line. However, we also expect organic growth to have continued at a moderate level of around 7–8%, some of which consists of price increases implemented to offset cost pressures. We estimate that all regions grew organically at roughly the same pace, but reported growth is weighted toward the Americas and Central Europe due to acquisitions. We believe demand has been supported by the ramp-up of new customer projects and exceptionally strong momentum in the Aerospace & Defense segment. We expect underlying demand in Medtech & Life Science and Energy & Cleantech to have remained favorable, while macroeconomic uncertainties in the Industrial segment have likely weighed on organic volume growth.

Operating profit has increased with volumes

We expect Scanfil's adjusted EBITA to have grown by 26% in Q3 to 17.7 MEUR, driven by all segments. In our estimation, earnings growth has primarily been driven by strong revenue growth, while we forecast that the adjusted EBITA margin has remained at the level of the comparison period, 7.4%. We estimate that relative profitability has been supported by increased capacity utilization and the margin profile of the acquired companies, which is fundamentally slightly better than Scanfil's average. Conversely, the upside for margins remains limited by an increasingly inflationary operating environment (cf. the rise in the prices of memory and energy-intensive raw materials, in particular). On the bottom line, earnings are weighed down by higher PPA depreciation resulting from acquisitions, as well as increased financial expenses and a slightly higher tax rate from the acquisitions. Thus, we forecast Scanfil's reported earnings per share to have risen to EUR 0.17, reflecting the operating profit. We estimate that Scanfil's cash flow recovered somewhat seasonally in Q3 from the weak beginning of the year, but despite the company's efficiency measures, inflation is likely to create upward pressure at least on the absolute level of working capital year-on-year.

Guidance repetition is the baseline scenario, with focus on the demand environment

In connection with its Capital Market Day at the end of September, Scanfil reiterated its guidance for the current year according to which 2026 revenue will be 940-1,060 MEUR and adjusted EBITA 64-78 MEUR. We expect the company to reiterate this guidance also in conjunction with the Q3 report. Our full-year estimates are solidly in the middle of the ranges.

We will follow with particular interest the company's comments in the report on customer demand outlooks amid prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and an increasingly inflationary economic environment. The strong momentum in the defense sector, previous project wins, and continued good new sales provide an important buffer for the company, in our view, and the near-term outlook is somewhat upbeat despite the uncertainties. We also expect the company to be able to raise its prices with relatively little delay compared to inflation of raw materials and components, so, provided that the positive demand environment continues, the impact of inflation on Scanfil's absolute earnings will be limited, in our view.