Solwers H2'25 preview: It's time for the turnaround to materialize

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/3/2026 at 7:30 am EET.

Solwers will publish its 2025 financial statement release on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at 8:30 am (EET). We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have returned to growth in the last quarter of the year, following a challenging start to the year. In our forecasts, the latter part of the year has been supported by improved utilization rates, implemented cost-saving measures, and acquisitions integrated into the group from the beginning of December. The report will focus particularly on comments regarding the 2026 outlook, order backlog, and balance sheet development, as realizing earnings growth is critical for reducing high financial leverage. 

Acquisitions, organic recovery and strengthening SEK as growth drivers

We forecast Solwers' H2'25 revenue to grow by 6.7% to 40.9 MEUR, and we expect 7.5% growth for Q4. We estimate organic revenue to have been slightly positive overall in the second half of the year. Although the market situation has generally remained subdued, the company has commented that the order book has started to grow, which should positively impact invoicing for the rest of the year. Part of the growth is also explained by the acquisitions in Poland and Sweden, which have been reported as part of the group starting from December 1, 2025, and the rest of the growth is based on the strengthening of the Swedish krona. 

Efficiency measures and increased utilization rates support profitability

We expect Solwers' H2'25 adjusted EBITA to rise to 2.6 MEUR (H2'24: 2.2 MEUR). We expect profitability to recover significantly, especially in Q4, from a very weak comparison period, and we anticipate the EBITA for the quarter to rise to around 1.4 MEUR (Q4'24: 1.0 MEUR). Improved personnel utilization rates support the earnings level, as the order book has strengthened while the number of employees has been adjusted. Additionally, profitability will be supported by cost savings realized in H2'25 and the absence of one-off expenses that burdened the beginning of the year, such as main list preparations and project challenges in Sweden. However, continued fierce price competition creates headwinds, slowing the recovery of margins to their historical levels.

2026 is critical for earnings growth and balance sheet position

The most important takeaways from the report are the comments on the 2026 outlook. We forecast a clear improvement in the company's EBITA to 8.0 MEUR for 2026 (2025e 4.2 MEUR), which requires a gradual recovery in market investment activity and price levels. Solwers has previously estimated that market recovery will strengthen towards the end of the year, and it is now crucial to see if this is more concretely reflected in order book quality and pricing power.

The realization of earnings growth is also critical for the company's balance sheet, as the net debt/EBITDA ratio has been elevated (H1'25: ~5x). The company aims to return to normal covenant levels (below 3.5x) by the end of June 2026, which requires an improvement in EBITDA in line with our forecasts. If profitability recovers as expected, the financial risk will decrease, and the company can once again become active on the M&A front. However, weak earnings development would keep the risk profile high.