SSH Q3'26 preview: Order delays limit acceleration in growth
Summary
- SSH's Q3 revenue is expected to grow by approximately 5% year-over-year, driven by subscription sales and the PrivX product family, but hindered by order delays and a profit warning issued in September.
- Q3 EBITDA is forecasted to fall to 0.1 MEUR from 0.8 MEUR in Q3'25, due to increased costs from front-loaded investments in sales, marketing, and product development, without the anticipated revenue materializing.
- SSH's guidance following the September profit warning indicates full-year 2026 revenue growth and positive cash flow from operations, but a negative EBITDA, with H2 expected to perform better than H1.
- The focus of the upcoming business review will be on the new CEO's comments and the status of delayed customer orders, including the significant 3 MEUR order and the Italian National Strategic Hub project.
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| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | 2026e |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes |
| Revenue | 5.5 | 5.7 | 23.0 | ||
| EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.2 | ||
| EBIT | 0.0 | -0.7 | -3.4 | ||
| Profit before tax | 0.0 | -0.8 | -3.6 | ||
| EPS (reported) | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.08 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 0.4% | -12.0% | -14.6% |
Source: Inderes
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.
SSH will release its Q3 business review on Wednesday, October 28. The quarter is defined by the profit warning issued at the end of September, after which we expect only modest revenue growth and clearly weaker profitability in Q3 than in the comparison period, weighed down by front-loaded growth investments and order delays. The main focus of the report will be the new CEO’s first public comments and their assessment of the company’s situation. We also expect an update on the status of delayed customer orders and the ramp-up of the recently announced major banking deal.
We do not expect growth to have accelerated in Q3
We expect SSH's Q3 revenue to have grown by ~5% year-over-year. Growth is driven by strategically important subscription sales and especially the PrivX product family. However, the growth figures are weighed down by the profit warning issued by the company in September, which was driven by delays in larger customer orders expected for Q3. We estimate that these may have included, among other things, the significant 3 MEUR order announced by the company in early September, which we do not yet expect to have had a material impact on Q3 revenue. We will also follow the company's comments on how the business with the Italian National Strategic Hub (PSN) is progressing. In our forecasts, overall growth is still weighed down by the declining trend in maintenance revenue from legacy product areas. We also expect license revenue to have declined from the comparison period (estimate 0.1 MEUR vs. Q3'25: 0.2 MEUR), which included some license sales.
Front-loaded growth investments drag earnings into the red
We forecast the Q3 EBITDA to have fallen close to zero at 0.1 MEUR (Q3'25: 0.8 MEUR). The weaker profitability is driven by the company's increased cost base, which is a result of front-loaded investments in sales, marketing, and product development. As expected customer orders and the resulting revenue failed to materialize in Q3, the elevated cost level is reflected directly on the earnings lines. We consider growth investments fundamentally justified, as reaching a path of sustainable profitable growth requires revenue growth.
Guidance known following the profit warning
Following SSH's profit warning in September, there should be no suspense regarding the guidance. The company expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow from 2025 and cash flow from operations to be positive, but EBITDA to remain negative for the full year (though H2 will be better than H1). Our forecasts expect 6% revenue growth and an EBITDA of -0.2 MEUR (H2e: 0.1 MEUR vs. H1: -0.3 MEUR).
In the review, our attention will primarily focus on the new CEO's performance, thoughts on the company, and focus areas. However, we do not expect any major strategic shifts after only a few weeks on the job, and the CEO will likely have more to offer, for example, in connection with the financial statements. In addition, we will monitor the company's comments on the development of the sales pipeline and the status of delayed deals. The company's recently announced large 3 MEUR order was an encouraging sign, and we are looking for indications of whether there are more similar deals in the pipeline. At the same time, however, the profit warning was a negative surprise, which showed that there is a certain slowness in the progress of projects (this also applies to the Leonardo partnership).