Taaleri Q2'26 flash comment: Write-downs weighed on earnings despite Garantia's strong momentum
Summary
- Taaleri's Q2 earnings were slightly below expectations due to carried interest and write-downs in the investment portfolio, although operational performance was largely in line with forecasts.
- Revenue was 13.2 MEUR, slightly below the forecast of 14.1 MEUR, impacted by a significant decrease in private equity funds' revenue and a 2.4 MEUR impairment in the Texas wind farm.
- Garantia's strong performance, with higher-than-expected investment income and growth in the guarantee insurance portfolio, acted as the Group's earnings engine, despite the overall EBIT being below estimates at 4.4 MEUR.
- The 30 MEUR investment in Fintoil is a significant step in recycling balance sheet assets, with the company focusing on Fintoil's future prospects and the upcoming SolarWind IV fund launch in 2026.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/12/2026 at 09:30 am EEST
| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | Consensus | Difference (%) | 2026e | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 13.5 | 13.2 | 14.1 | -6 % | 59.6 | |||||
| EBIT | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.7 | -23 % | 22.9 | |||||
| EPS (rep.) | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.14 | -7 % | 0.51 | |||||
| Revenue growth-% | 6.6 % | -2.1 % | 4.6 % | -6.7 pp | -6.4 % | |||||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 33.4 % | 33.8 % | 40.6 % | -6.8 pp | 38.4 % | |||||
Source: Inderes
Taaleri's Q2 earnings were slightly below our expectations, as carried interest and write-downs in the investment portfolio weighed on the result. However, operationally, the development was largely in line with our expectations, and we preliminarily see only limited needs for estimate changes. In the earnings call, the main focus will be on Fintoil's outlook and the fundraising for the SolarWind IV fund, which will start at the end of the year.
Write-downs weighed on revenue
Taaleri's revenue was around the comparison period's level at 13.2 MEUR, which was slightly below our forecast of 14.1 MEUR. Private equity funds' revenue decreased significantly more than expected, as the company recorded a negative item of -1.7 MEUR in performance fees. Continuing earnings from Private Equity Funds were fully in line with our estimates. For Garantia, insurance premium income was approximately in line with our expectations, but the guarantee insurance portfolio grew more strongly than we expected, which supports growth in future quarters. Garantia has clearly accelerated sales through its own actions, and its market share in domestic mortgage loans continued to grow. Growth in the Nordic credit risk markets is also starting to be reflected in the company's figures. Garantia's investment income was significantly higher than we expected, and as a result, Garantia's reported revenue was significantly higher than we expected. In the Investments segment, a significant impairment of 2.4 MEUR was recorded in the Texas wind farm, which also negatively impacted revenue. We emphasize to investors that the relevant operational items in revenue (Private Equity Funds' continuing earnings and Garantia's insurance premium income) were well in line with our estimates, even though there were many deviations in revenue otherwise.
Garantia acted as the Group's earnings engine
EBIT was 4.4 MEUR, clearly below our estimate (5.7 MEUR). Garantia achieved one of its best quarterly results in its history. The insurance service result was strong as we expected, but investment income significantly exceeded our expectations, driven by a strong market. In Renewable Energy, the result unexpectedly turned negative, as the company wrote down 1.7 MEUR of old performance fees from the Aurinkotuuli 1 fund. The segment's costs were also higher than we expected due to bonus provisions. Other Private Equity Funds were in the red, as expected. The write-down of the Texas wind farm in the Investments segment also weighed on earnings. Adjusted for investment income, EBIT was only slightly below our expectations due to cost overruns in Renewable Energy. Despite a clear earnings miss, EPS was close to our estimate (0.13 vs. 0.14e), as the minority interest in earnings was exceptionally positive. In our view, this is related to certain minority transactions carried out during the review period.
Fintoil investment materializes balance sheet recycling
Taaleri does not provide numerical guidance at the group level, and the company reiterated its segment-specific verbal outlook in the report as expected. As we noted in our pre-comment, rapid progress on the strategy is currently a much more important factor for the investment case than the quarterly figures. The 30 MEUR investment in Fintoil announced in July is a significant step in recycling balance sheet assets, and the main focus of today's earnings call is on Fintoil's future prospects. In Q2, Fintoil continued its strong performance: revenue grew significantly, and the rolling 12-month earnings also improved by almost 50%. The company reiterated its comments in the report regarding the preparation for fundraising for the SolarWind IV fund, and it expects to launch it in 2026. Regarding the old wind farms, the company also reiterated its estimate of an exit during 2026. This appears more realistic than before, now that the Finnish electricity market outlook has clearly improved with the data center boom.