Toivo Group Q3'26 flash comment: Volumes leave revenue and earnings short of expectations, but profitability good
Summary
- Toivo Group's Q3 revenue and EBIT were below expectations due to lower-than-anticipated volumes, particularly in property sales, although project management contracting revenue slightly exceeded forecasts.
- The EBIT margin was consistent with expectations, and project profitability was deemed good, despite fixed costs being higher than anticipated and personnel expenses increasing year-on-year.
- The company reiterated its guidance for the financial year, with revenue estimated at 65–85 MEUR and EBIT at 6–11 MEUR, indicating a strong year-end performance is necessary to meet full-year forecasts.
- Toivo has increased its market share in a challenging housing market, with January–September starts accounting for nearly 10% of privately financed apartment building starts, up from 6.6% in 2025.
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| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | Diff-% | 2026e | |||
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | High | Low | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | ||
| Total revenue | 13.8 | 16.9 | 21.5 | -22% | 76.5 | |||||
| Changes in fair value | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 15% | -0.7 | |||||
| EBIT | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -22% | 7.2 | |||||
| EPS | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -22% | 0.05 | |||||
| Revenue growth-% | 230.8% | 21.8% | 55.6% | -33.8 pp | 24% | |||||
| EBIT % | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.2% | +0 pp | 9.4% |
Source: Inderes
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 9:25 am EET.
Toivo’s Q3 revenue and EBIT fell short of our estimates, weighed down by lower-than-expected volumes. The EBIT margin was in line with our expectations, however, and in our estimation, project profitability was good. Overall, the earnings level was good given the low property sales. As expected, the company reiterated its guidance, the lower end of which is well within reach. Our preliminary view is that our current-year revenue and earnings forecasts face slight downward pressure, but the rest of the year and the outlook for next year look good, supported by this year’s project starts, even though the market environment remains difficult. The company’s earnings call can be followed here from 10:00 am EET.
Volumes smaller than expected
Toivo’s Q3 revenue grew by 22% to 16.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 13.8 MEUR) but fell short of our 21.5 MEUR forecast. Based on the company’s revenue breakdown, the miss came entirely from property sales, while project management contracting revenue (~17 MEUR) was slightly above our expectations. Cumulative January–September property sales were lower than the H1 figure, implying a slightly negative Q3 contribution. The company did not explain the difference in its report, so we will look into it on the earnings call. According to the company, the ~60 MEUR of projects started in Q2 are progressing at full pace and will be reflected in revenue during the rest of the year and in 2027. The occupancy rate was 94.0% in January–September (H1'26: 94.4%), meaning Q3 occupancy was below the H1 level. We estimate that the vacant apartments in Miilukorpi will only weigh on occupancy in Q4. The value of the project portfolio grew to 322 MEUR (Q3'25: 286 MEUR), and in our view its quality is now quite good.
Earnings missed expectations due to volumes, but profitability was good
EBIT rose to 1.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 1.6 MEUR), but fell short of our estimate of 2.4 MEUR. The EBIT margin (11.3%) was still in line with our expectations, and project profitability was, in our assessment, good. Fixed costs were ~0.5 MEUR higher than we expected. According to the company, personnel expenses increased year-on-year because fewer expenses were capitalized into projects than before. Due to project-specific fluctuations, we believe that the most sensible way to monitor Toivo's profitability is at the EBIT level. Financing costs (0.5 MEUR vs. our estimate of 0.9 MEUR) were clearly lower than we expected, but the minority interest (0.1 MEUR) was once again higher than expected, causing EPS to fall about one-fifth short of our estimate. On the balance sheet, inventories grew to 54.1 MEUR (June 30, 2026: 39.8 MEUR), and the equity ratio fell to 40.8%, which is close to the lower limit of the company's target (over 40%). Overall, Q3 was quite good in terms of earnings, considering the project mix.
Earnings once again packed into year-end
As expected, Toivo reiterated its guidance, according to which the company "estimates revenue to be 65–85 MEUR" and "EBIT to be 6–11 MEUR for the financial year January 1–December 31, 2026." With January–September EBIT at 4.6 MEUR, the lower end of the range requires only ~1.4 MEUR of EBIT in Q4 (Q4'25: 3.0 MEUR). Reaching our full-year forecasts (revenue of 81 MEUR, EBIT of 7.7 MEUR) would now require Q4 revenue of ~28 MEUR and EBIT of 3.1 MEUR. These levels are quite demanding, but we expect earnings to be heavily weighted toward year-end, as they were last year. The housing market remains difficult, but Toivo has clearly increased its market share: its January–September starts (221 homes) account for nearly 10% of privately financed apartment building starts (2025: 6.6%). On the earnings call, we will be looking in particular for visibility into the timing of property sales, project profitability, and the near-term outlook for starts.