contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


elisa-oyj-elisa-notification-of-the-managers-transactions-104

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Elisa is active in the telecom industry. The company offers services within communication with a focus on solutions that involve fixed telephony, mobile, and internet services. The customers are found among private individuals, corporate customers, and public organizations. The largest activity is in the Finnish and Baltic markets. In addition to the main business, the company also offers various digitization services, mainly to its larger corporate customers.

A good point of wonder! I could elaborate a bit on the significance of this subscription price situation. The data presented in the accompanying graphs comes from the “operational & financial data” file published in connection with Elisa’s interim report. 1. The problem concerns approximately 30% of Elisa’s business:  Finnish consumer postpaid mobile accounts for just under 30% of Elisa’s business.  So, not even half of Elisa’s total, but since the rest includes a lot of device business, lower-margin IT, and other non-scalable operations, this is a significant part of the overall margin. It should be noted, of course, that Elisa also has other significant mobile business – for example, in the corporate sector and Estonia, but their importance is small in relation to Finnish consumer mobile.  2. Revenue is over 160M per quarter Elisa’s total revenue is over 2 billion, so that 30% is a significant sum.   Mobile revenue can be expressed as the product of ARPU (average revenue per user) and the number of subscriptions. Elisa’s ARPU has risen sharply in recent years, but the number of subscriptions is declining.    4. Recently, the competitive situation has intensified, which practically means that the churn rate of subscriptions has increased. Elisa saw approximately 124 thousand subscriptions terminated in Q3.   And now we get to why this subscription price situation is significant. To replace that churn, Elisa needs to ideally sell at least the same number of new subscriptions – or try to save more subscriptions. However, the situation now is such that if you want to sell a subscription, it must be offered at an average price of around 15 euros or less (VAT 0), and if you want to save it, then the price must be dropped to around 12 euros. In addition, sales (sales commissions) and perks must be paid at the same per-transaction prices as before – perhaps even more if we are talking about perks.  Indeed, we are still talking about a 30% share of Elisa’s revenue, but if we now assume that the average price, which was 24.3 euros, would drop to 23 euros next year as competition continues, and Elisa continues to lose subscriptions, e.g., to 2.2 million subscriptions, then the total revenue impact of this component next year would be -40M, which would be reflected quite directly in cash flow or EBITDA, as this is scalable revenue. That seems to be precisely the savings effect of that co-determination negotiation (YT-urakan) effort.

I’m trying to understand why Elisa was given a target price of 50 euros just a moment ago, and Barclays lowered its target from 62 euros to 60 euros the week before last. Looking at the income statements, only a good dividend yield supports that, along with very moderate, even small growth. Of course, it’s generally stable, even though the share price has now fallen from 45 euros to 37 euros. At this price, the dividend is quite nice, and perhaps small growth could encourage adding to the stock.

By comparing market value instead of enterprise value, one quickly makes the mistake of not taking into account the company’s debt position in any way. Elisa is, however, quite an indebted company. Elisa’s EV/EBIT seems to be somewhere around 15-16, and it describes valuation much better than market value/EBIT.

This price war is a bit out of control now. And this isn’t even the best offer. These 300M 5G have been sold for under 15€, and even with gift cards included.

The market has started to view Telia as higher quality because it is valued at higher multiples. Elisa’s dividend yield is, for a change, better than Telia’s due to the share price drop. The gains from Telia were apparently realized a bit too early.

That subscription fee discussion is a bit pointless here… their fluctuation is a zero-sum game between companies, meaning market share isn’t quickly grown with it. What companies do is get customers to switch to slightly more expensive subscriptions across all companies and upgrade them to 5G subscriptions. Elisa has expanded its operations to other areas besides subscription sales, but that share is still small. The stock price drop is a bit puzzling, as nothing revolutionary has actually happened. There isn’t much growth, but this can rather be considered a bond-like investment with a good 6.5% dividend, and as a bonus, perhaps sometimes a rise to the +50 level predicted by analysts, or was there now a recommendation cut from 62 euros to 60 euros somewhere. I don’t know what the driver would be for it to rise there.

I currently have DNA and Elisa’s offers, which are those 25-30€. I have tried that automated offer system several times, and it has never offered anything cheaper than that.

Elisa

ELISA MANAGERS' TRANSACTIONS RELEASE 3 MAY 2023 AT 9:30 AMElisa Oyj - Managers' Transactions____________________________________________Person subject to the notification requirementName: Eva...

<div class="abstract">ELISA MANAGERS' TRANSACTIONS RELEASE 3 MAY 2023 AT 9:30 AM</div>Elisa Oyj - Managers' Transactions____________________________________________Person subject to the notification requirementName: Eva-Lotta SjöstedtPosition: Member of the Board/Deputy member&nbsp;Issuer: Elisa OyjLEI: 743700TU2S3DXWGU7H32Notification type: INITIAL NOTIFICATIONReference number: 30604/5/4____________________________________________Transaction date: 2023-05-02Venue: NASDAQ HELSINKI LTD (XHEL)Instrument type: SHAREISIN: FI0009007884Nature of transaction: DISPOSALTransaction details(1): Volume: 145 Unit price: 56 EUR(2): Volume: 68 Unit price: 56 EUR(3): Volume: 23 Unit price: 56 EUR(4): Volume: 164 Unit price: 56 EURAggregated transactions (4):Volume: 400 Volume weighted average price: 56 EURElisa's Management holdings: <a href="https://elisa.com/corporate/governance/management-holdings/">https://elisa.com/corporate/governance/management-holdings/</a>ELISA CORPORATIONVesa Sahivirta&nbsp; IR Director tel. +358 50 520 5555Distribution:Nasdaq Helsinki&nbsp; Principal media&nbsp; elisa.com