contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


k-ryhma-kesko-oyj-managers-transactions-rauhala-1

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Kesko operates in the retail sector. The company offers services primarily aimed at the food, construction and technology industries. The largest activities are found in the development of store concepts, channel sales, e-commerce sites and business models. The majority of operations are found in the Nordic and Baltic markets. The head office is located in Helsinki.

When Kesko once again reached figures starting with 17 in November, I ran through my own scenarios one more time. And so it happened that we are once again on board with Kesko. I jumped off when Euribor climbed to around 2%. I remember being annoyed that I hadn’t dared to make the same move at 1% a moment earlier. When it climbed 2 percentage points in 5 months, the trend would have been clear even to a blind man halfway through… Behind the decision is not a single fundamental change, but rather that in the updated scenario analysis, several different factors began to emerge, whose probability, according to my analysis, has steadily increased. In short, themes whose increasing probability drives Kesko’s value creation capability:   New Citymarkets: The competitiveness of Citymarkets has been clear for a while. But now we are in a situation where a couple have already opened this year, and 6 or 7 more are coming in the next few years. The main competitor in this category only has 4, and several of those are upgrades of “already strong S-markets.” At least Ideapark, Haapaniemi, Paavola, Ritaportti, Redi, and Espoo are capable of capturing new market share from the main competitor. In summary: In the growth of hypermarkets in the 2020s, the first half went to the Co-op, which was awake early, while in the latter half, Kesko, which was slightly late, is relatively stronger.   Logistics: The biggest investment will start paying for itself from late 2026 (Rauhala stated that initially there will be adjustments and warm-ups, and efficiency benefits will be measured out in H2/26). In addition, Nurmijärvi is expected to materialize as growing cash flow towards the end of the decade.   Customers’ purchasing power. In 2 years, consumers’ purchasing power has already improved by almost +5%. Next year, in 2026 (3-year), growth is expected to reach +7% - +8%. This means we will finally reach and possibly exceed the 2020 level. Continued steady wage development, moderate inflation, and tax cuts, especially in Kesko’s daily consumer goods trade core segments, provide a steady positive underlying sentiment for Kesko. Furthermore, consumers have aggressively paid down loans for 2 years, and buffers have already been accumulated in accounts – in other words, very sensible moves by Finnish consumers. Once these “mandatory and sensible” moves have been made, the increased purchasing power will translate relatively more strongly into Kesko’s revenue in 2026 than in 2024-25.   Scope and Probability of Alcohol Legislation: In my view, we are now far enough along in the government term’s work that I dare to increase the probability of this. In Kesko’s Wolt vs. the Co-op’s Starship deliveries, Kesko will have at least a temporary significant competitive advantage over the Co-op and Lidl. Tesco, Ocado, Auchan, and Woolworths have all reported the great importance of alcohol. Home-delivered alcohol has a relatively high share in home deliveries; it increases the average purchase and improves profitability. Many chains have also reported that alcohol is also a clear retention tool in e-commerce, meaning buyers remain customers longer and purchase more often. And when these results are reported from countries without an alcohol monopoly, I see no reason why this effect would not be even relatively greater in Finland. Kroger, Tesco, and WW have all actually stated that the most important product category as a driver of customer loyalty is alcohol?!? In the UK, Sainsbury has also reported that distance selling of alcohol improved store safety, reduced shoplifting, and increased staff job satisfaction. In summary: Finns + liberalizing alcohol monopoly + liberalizing alcohol legislation + evidence of alcohol’s significant positive impact on e-commerce from abroad + Kesko’s strong position in home deliveries = relative competitive advantage and value creation capability! By Q4/26 at the latest, Rauhala will report how “We have seen particularly strong growth in home deliveries, which has been boosted by the new opportunity to order drinks home for, for example, pre-Christmas parties.”   Wines and percentages? In addition, I have previously noted that generally in Finnish daily consumer goods trade, Kesko innovates, the Co-op copies a couple of years later, and Lidl minimizes. If/when alcohol percentages in Finnish grocery stores rise during this or the next government term, Kesko’s retailer model is best suited to capitalize on such changes. You have found Finland’s overwhelmingly best beer selections in Citymarkets for years. In Prismas, the selection has been gradually increased; Laune, Pirkkala, and Kupittaa have had 200 different beers in their selections for years! A week after wine becomes available in Finnish grocery stores, Hannu Aaltonen will have a 3x larger selection of wine than Turku’s best Alko in Hansakortteli – and at a lower price. And politically supporting this: the National Coalition Party, the Swedish People’s Party, the Greens, a large part of the Social Democrats, the Finns Party, and the Left Alliance – it’s only a matter of time. This change also represents a clear capture of market share from Alko, where margins are notoriously good, and every wine bottle buyer can find their own personal expert salesperson (whom the customer pays for). Kesko will sell its wine bottles for a euro less. The answer to “What would go well with…” can be found from AI and Google for free; at Alko, it costs at least a euro per bottle…   Changes in Pharmacy Legislation. Kesko benefits from the probable liberalization of pharmacy legislation, as over-the-counter medicines and health-related volume products become part of the daily grocery basket. It’s easy to increase purchase frequency and average purchase, utilizing an extensive store network and efficient logistics with lower unit costs than pharmacies. And of course, even if Plussa loses to the green card, it will easily beat pharmacies’ own loyalty programs in data monetization.   In these two previous points, in situations of change, Kesko’s retailer model is a clear advantage. Overall, I believe that Kesko overestimates the strategic benefits of the retailer model in digitalizing retail. And for value creation, it would be good if Kesko strategically further reduced its retailer dependence, as it has already done with Onninen and K-auto in recent years. The retailer model could be a good internal driver with a 20-25% share, but its strategic importance will diminish as omnichannel, digitalization, automated logistics, and the importance of data grow ever larger. But I admit that in these changes, the Retailer is at their best! In Lahti, the retailer experimented with the first self-service checkouts in a couple of years (when they were introduced in Finland), at the Co-op, the board of directors in the “bravest co-op” ponders for a year longer, and Lidl discovered their benefit 15 years after others.   Trump. Trump’s nonlinear and unconventional straightforward foreign policy has so far brought a calmer situation to the Middle East, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and Rwanda. I would still not be giving the guy a Nobel, but in 4 years, we have not been this close to a moment when (Trump forces) we get a (bad) peace in Ukraine. I consider it unlikely that the war would continue for another year with this intensity. Trump has the desire, and the ability, to make the continuation of the war too expensive for Ukraine (and Europe) and Russia. So I consider the probability of a bad peace to be rather high in Q1-Q3/2026. This has direct, but above all, indirect positive effects on Kesko. It is difficult to see how consumer confidence would not react to peace. Consumer confidence is most visible for Kesko in hardware stores, construction, and car sales. In addition, the (partial) opening of the border/trade is probable and will significantly increase commercial activity in Finland. Will Kesko go to St. Petersburg? Not for a couple of decades. Will people from St. Petersburg come shopping as soon as the border is open? Certainly. The local Intersport in Lappeenranta near St. Petersburg will achieve the largest growth percentage in the entire Chain’s history in 2026. The retailer can send me a message next Christmas if I was right…   Is there a risk of stagnation in Kesko’s stock price? Absolutely. But I see that at the moment there is also the possibility of several factors contributing to growth and profitability.* None of the above happens? I consider it unlikely, but possible.  1-2 of the above happens? A good basic scenario. 3-4 of the above happens? The stock price surprises positively. 5-7 of the above happens? Kesko is a relative winner in the latter half of the 2020s in the world’s most profitable retail market.  As a Finnish consumer and a net contributor to our national economy, it is naturally sad to state that Kesko’s biggest moat is the Baltic Sea, an aging population, an impoverishing national economy, and the people. The cooperative store is kept in check by the competition authority at the latest, Lidl has its own small (world’s largest) corner, and the most challenging new competitor is on the level of Tokmanni. The queue of new chains for the Finnish market is quite short. We are reasonably protected. Let’s revisit this in Christmas 2026, to see how my scenarios played out.

Here are Arttu’s comments on Kesko’s November.   Kesko’s November sales grew by 4%, supported by its two largest divisions. Organically, growth was slightly milder (1%). The development was commendable, especially in the consumer customer sales of the Grocery Trade division, while development elsewhere was somewhat stable. The group-level performance slightly exceeded our expectations, and so far, Q4 development has been better than our expectations. We will update our forecast figures at the latest after the December sales release or in our Q4 earnings preview.                   Inderes              Keskon orgaanisen myynnin kehitys lievästi plussalla marraskuussa - Inderes    Keskon marraskuun myynti kasvoi 4 % kahden suurimman toimialan tukemana.

Trade picked up in September – specialty retail turnover growing this year | Kauppalehti

There isn’t even time to plant the tomato seedlings needed for that ketchup yet, and yesterday there was a signal that the seed packet can still be left in the cupboard for a good while. Euribor rates have started to rise, and next, the ECB is expected to raise its interest rates:   Further discussion on housing transactions probably fits better in the above thread anyway?

It has always been this way: most home buyers want a move-in ready home. But these prime-condition used homes are available in limited quantities. Inevitably, one has to buy homes that need a bit of polishing, which increases renovation needs. In addition, every move usually means some kind of fixing up, even if it’s a practically new used home. So, there will certainly be demand for interior decoration items at Kesko in any case. As thousands more people inevitably come to Finland every year and the population concentrates in urban centers, there will be moves and a need for housing in regional centers as well as in the Helsinki metropolitan area. The pressure for housing needs is constantly growing - the ketchup bottle is approaching an ‘explosion’.

In the used housing market, however, demand focuses on properties in good condition, i.e., those where the need for renovation is minimal. A couple of headlines, the articles are probably behind a paywall: Positive signs seen in Jyväskylä’s housing market – such “hit products” sell quickly | Themes | Keskisuomalainen  A well-maintained and relatively new detached house is a hit.  Well-maintained family homes are now in demand in Oulu – studios could be bought cheaply | Kaleva  Well-maintained family homes are selling.

Yesterday’s Kauppalehti covered this. I compiled parts of it.

Kesko

Kesko Oyj - Managers' Transactions____________________________________________Person subject to the notification requirementName: Jorma RauhalaPosition: Other senior manager Issuer: Kesko OyjLEI...

Kesko Oyj - Managers' Transactions____________________________________________Person subject to the notification requirementName: Jorma RauhalaPosition: Other senior manager&nbsp;Issuer: Kesko OyjLEI: 743700OX6HSVMCAHPB95Notification type: INITIAL NOTIFICATIONReference number: 42878/4/4____________________________________________Transaction date: 2023-11-06Venue: NASDAQ HELSINKI LTD (XHEL)Instrument type: SHAREISIN: FI0009000202Nature of transaction: ACQUISITIONTransaction details(1): Volume: 202 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(2): Volume: 276 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(3): Volume: 805 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(4): Volume: 10 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(5): Volume: 200 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(6): Volume: 82 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(7): Volume: 76 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(8): Volume: 400 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(9): Volume: 9 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(10): Volume: 18 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(11): Volume: 7 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(12): Volume: 80 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(13): Volume: 10 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(14): Volume: 100 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(15): Volume: 8 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(16): Volume: 202 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(17): Volume: 280 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(18): Volume: 10 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(19): Volume: 29 Unit price: 16.565 EUR(20): Volume: 196 Unit price: 16.565 EURAggregated transactions (20):Volume: 3000 Volume weighted average price: 16.565 EUR