contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Saab is active in the defense and aerospace industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of defense and security systems. The company's products include fighter aircraft, radar and surveillance systems. The operations are global with a primary presence in Europe, North America and Asia. Saab was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm.

Saab just landed a real EW win in Germany, and the AI angle is not marketing fluff Saab has received two orders from Airbus Defence and Space for the Arexis Electronic Warfare sensor suite for Germany’s Eurofighter program, with a total value of ~549 MEUR and deliveries planned for 2025 to 2028. The split matters: 291 MEUR was booked immediately, and this second order of ~258 MEUR includes AI technology from Saab and its strategic partner Helsing. Importantly, that approval condition is now cleared, so the 258 MEUR is booked as order intake in Q4 2025. Saab reported 2024 revenue just shy of 64 BSEK. For 2025, the outlook is 20-24% organic revenue growth, which implies a rough 2025 revenue base of:  64 BSEK*1.20 = 76.8 BSEK  64 BSEK*1.24 = 79.4 BSEK Conservatively, 258 MEUR *~SEK 11-12 per EUR = ~2.8-3.1BSEK. That is ~3.5-4.0% of the implied 2025 revenue base. With that said, this is not the type of order for which revenue is recognized over one year; rather, it is delivered over multiple years. Why this matters, you ask? Arexis is a high-end electronic warfare sensor suite for Germany’s Eurofighter program, the kind of capability that is authority approval sensitive and hard to replicate quickly at scale. It also lands while Saab is still scaling operations and investing in capacity ramp up, including supplier ramp ups, which points to a tight production environment rather than slack. Adding Helsing’s AI into Arexis over the next three years signals a shift toward more software-driven EW (which is already a sector base case), where faster detection, classification, and countermeasure updates improve electronic attack and self-protection as threats evolve. What could still bite: integration and certification risk, schedule risk, and margin risk if execution drags. Also, this is Airbus as prime, so Saab’s economics are great but not fully in its own hands. What we will watch next: disclosure on delivery phasing, any follow on tranches for the Eurofighter EW variant, and whether Saab starts to describe the AI enabled EW content as a reusable product platform rather than a one off integration. However, this order specifically is so small that we won’t put much effort into digging into it.

Saab is staying active, as expected. Q4 is seasonally strong in orders and deliveries, and the company continues to fill its European order book, much to the market’s delight. On Monday, Saab announced a third MSHORAD (Mobile Short-Range Air Defense) battery for Lithuania, a ~1.4 BSEK order for deliveries in 2026-30. The system combines Giraffe 1X radar and RBS 70 NG effectors on Oshkosh JLTVs (Joint Light Tactical Vehicles), plugging into its GBAD (ground-based air defense) C2 (command and control) architecture, providing the Lithuanian Army with more mobile, networkable short-range air defense capacity. Fundamentally, the contract is small against Dynamics’ ~90 BSEK backlog and ~18 BSEK LTM revenue. However, it is another data point that Saab’s short-range air defense offering is competitive and that Baltic needs for ground-based air defense are translating into real orders. We keep our estimates unchanged, but see the order as supportive for Dynamics’ medium-term growth case and for Saab’s ability to convert the current security environment into a thicker, more diversified backlog. Today, Saab also announced its first live training order from the Spanish Army under a framework agreement with a maximum value of ~34 MEUR (~400 MSEK). The initial contract covers Individual Duel Simulation systems from its GAMER (Gunnery & Maneuver Exercise) family, delivered with local partner Tecnobit. Financially, this is small for Dynamics and even smaller in a group context than the Lithuanian MSHORAD deal, given its ~72 BSEK LTM revenue and ~200 BSEK backlog; it does not move our estimates. Strategically, however, Spain is a useful reference customer for Dynamics’ Training and Simulation business, as the systems can scale from small unit training to larger multinational exercises, strengthening Saab’s position in European land forces’ training infrastructure. In addition to recent larger developments in Kockums and Aeronautics, these two contracts exemplify how Saab adds smaller, recurring pieces to a growing European defense footprint, even when headline numbers are not large enough to distinctly affect fundamentals on their own.

Interesting read. It certainly makes one wonder. In our view, the choice between Gripen and F-35 for Canada may presented as a technical capability decision, but the evaluation itself is shaped by political choices about alliances, industrial policy and threat scenarios. Also, the scoring framework may be described as reflecting only threat scenarios and capability needs, yet a different set of political priorities could still make Gripen the better strategic option for Canada. In practice, the choice is a political one between a platform that best serves the integrated US led alliance model and a platform that prioritizes Canadian industrial autonomy and alternative partnerships, even if both can be justified on “technical” grounds. While Ottawa is currently committed to an 88 aircraft F-35 fleet, the ongoing Saab-Bombardier talks and unease over F-35 costs mean that a future mixed fleet in which Canada adds a smaller number of Gripen aircraft remains a plausible political and industrial scenario.

According to this article, Saab got badly beaten compared to the F-35. Not good, no.                   Tekniikka&Talous – 28 Nov 25              Rökäletappio Ruotsin hävittäjälle – F-35 vs Saab Gripen E -vertailu...    Tiedossa ei ole, kuka on tehnyt vuodon ja millä motiiveilla, mutta keskustelua se takuulla aiheuttaa.

The recent media noise around the defense sector shows how easily headlines and rumors can shift prices in the short-term, sometimes far more than any change in fundamentals would warrant. Consensus already expects robust backlog growth and better execution across the sector, and current valuations already discount (price in) a meaningful part of that. The key issue is not whether the cycle is in the price, but how many years of elevated growth, margins, and cash conversion the market has pulled forward for each name. Our view is that the market is most likely overestimating this in names with high exposure to short-cycle ground combat portfolios and sensor-heavy product sets (Saab included) where recent earnings upgrades and war sensitivity have pushed multiples to levels that are hard to reconcile with the underlying procurement paths. Contract news and geopolitical headlines still create entry and exit points because they can move both sentiment and fundamentals, but the short-term impact on intrinsic value is usually difficult to gauge. Price discovery when fundamentals change, and how that feeds through to intrinsic value, is objectively a gradual process, so short-term price moves do not necessarily give a reliable picture. As an illustration, a defense company announcing a 7 BUSD order on a backlog of similar size could see its share price jump 5-10% (maybe more), depending on how well the market understands the company’s economics or the general hype around it. In simple terms, the order increases revenue visibility because the company can run its factories at higher utilization for longer, but the value impact still depends on capacity, margins, investment needs, and execution risk. If the company faces capacity constraints or must invest heavily to deliver, the market’s initial reaction can easily overshoot what the order is worth in discounted cash flow terms. Sharp short-term moves like that only make sense relative to a long-term valuation anchor that assumes multiples revert toward more sustainable levels as growth from the upcycle slows. Without that anchor, trading on news flow is effectively gambling. This does not imply that a sector must revert to its historical valuation levels, but history provides context on where valuations could settle under different scenarios. We also need to understand whether a business today is structurally different from its past and how that should affect the way the market values it. The market’s “not knowing for sure” can just as well mean that current prices reflect a mistaken view of duration or profitability that will eventually be corrected. Two examples of investors:   Price driven investors say: “The share price is down this month, that must be a good entry point.”   Anchor driven investors say: “The share price is down this month. How does that compare with our view of fair value?”   Both may be right on a given trade, but only one wins in the long run. You want your expectations to be right for the right reasons, not because you got lucky once or twice. We want to avoid the overconfidence bias, because it turns any investor into a ticking bomb in the markets.

No GlobalEye deal comes as a surprise, as in many cases the selection decision is known/guessed long before, e.g., France. So they are more or less priced in (except, of course, at Inderes). Ukraine’s future aircraft are not yet priced in, because frozen assets have not yet been unlocked, meaning the main funding is missing. Presumably Canada is also missing (from the pricing), because they are not in a “must-have” situation regarding fighter jets like Ukraine. However, several orders for GlobalEye are expected within a year. France has possibly linked Sweden’s new warships and airborne surveillance aircraft:                   Breaking Defense – 24 Nov 25              Sweden to pick next frigate design by 'early 2026,' working on GlobalEye sale...    France's defense minister was in Stockholm today pitching Naval Group's offering.         Est. reading time: 3 minutes

Typically, these processes take a while, and those following the industry know about the projects and the most likely competitors. But not everything is necessarily priced in yet. One interesting speculation I read about is NATO’s need to modernize its AWACS aircraft. The E-7 Wedgetail, previously considered a likely option, has dropped out of this, partly due to a lack of US support for that E-7 aircraft. For Saab, this is an opportunity, because the probability of Saab’s Globaleye aircraft getting into that NATO project increased significantly. But then one can reasonably ask why the United States isn’t acquiring those E-7 AWACS aircraft for itself? Well, because they apparently meet the need with satellites. So, is it also possible that NATO will opt for a similar solution?  (https://themerge.co/p/decoys) That Merge is actually a good source to follow these various opportunities worldwide. That newsletter also mentions other opportunities for Saab’s GlobalEye. Usually, competitors for various projects are well-known, and thus all of this is already priced into the stock.

Saab

Den 14 november 2025 mottog Saab två beställningar från Airbus Defence and Space avseende sensorlösningen Arexis till tyska Eurofighter. Nu är villkor om myndighetsgodkännande uppfyllt för den...

<div class="abstract">Den 14 november 2025 mottog Saab två beställningar från Airbus Defence and Space avseende sensorlösningen Arexis till tyska Eurofighter. Nu är villkor om myndighetsgodkännande uppfyllt för den andra ordern som omfattar AI-teknik från både Saab och dess strategiska partner Helsing. Saab har därför bokfört cirka 258 miljoner euro i orderingång i det fjärde kvartalet 2025.</div>Pressmeddelande 14 november 2025: <a href="https://www.saab.com/sv/newsroom/press-releases/2025/saab-far-bestallningar-pa-sensorsystemet-arexis-till-tyska-eurofighter">https://www.saab.com/sv/newsroom/press-releases/2025/saab-far-bestallningar-pa-sensorsystemet-arexis-till-tyska-eurofighter</a>KontaktSaabs presscenter +46 (0)734 180 018 presscentre@saabgroup.com&nbsp; &nbsp;Saab är ett ledande försvars- och säkerhetsföretag med uppdrag att hjälpa nationer att skydda sin befolkning och bidrar till trygghet för människor och samhällen. Med 27 000 talangfulla medarbetare utvecklar Saab teknik och lösningar för en säkrare och mer hållbar värld. Saab utvecklar, tillverkar och underhåller avancerade system inom flygteknik, vapen, ledningssystem, sensorer och undervattenssystem. Saab har sitt huvudkontor i Sverige men en global verksamhet där Saab är en del av många nationers försvarsförmåga.<div></div>