Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/23/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

Aiforia issued a profit warning on Tuesday, stating that its revenue for January–June 2026 was subdued. The company attributes this weaker-than-expected development, relative to our forecasts and its own internal expectations, to delays in finalizing pending customer agreements and the fact that revenue recognition for contracts signed early in the year was concentrated in H2. Customer wins in recent years seem to be converting into recurring revenue regrettably slowly, and the growth we anticipate is being pushed further into the future. We are significantly lowering our revenue estimates for the coming years and dropping our target price to EUR 1.30 (was EUR 2.40). We lower our recommendation to Reduce (was Accumulate) based on decreased estimates. We believe the longer-term potential still exists. However, the uncertainty related to its realization has increased significantly, which, in our opinion, warrants a more cautious recommendation than before.

Revenue plummeted in H1 due to slow recognition of revenue from customer contracts

Aiforia's H1'26 revenue decreased by around 46% year-on-year to 0.75 MEUR, while we had estimated revenue of 2.3 MEUR for the first half of the year following a strong H2'25. According to the company, the slow start to the year was due in part to delays in finalizing pending customer agreements, as well as the fact that revenue from expansions into hospitals in Paris and Spain, for example, will not be recognized until H2. Our assessment indicates that the low level of revenue suggests that recurring revenue from tissue section analysis remains low and that a larger portion of revenue is still derived from deployments and other one-time items. This would explain the significant difference in revenue levels between H2’25 and H1’26. The order book of 3.5 MEUR at the end of June supports future revenue, but it is modest compared to a year ago (H1'25: 5.1 MEUR). The order book increased by 0.1 MEUR since the end of 2025.

We are significantly lowering our forecasts due to growth delays

Due to the profit warning, we are significantly adjusting our revenue estimates for the coming years downward. We are reducing our revenue estimates for 2026-2028 by approximately 40%, as the steep growth curve we anticipated is shifting further into the future. Our earnings forecasts are also deteriorating due to declining income financing. Although Aiforia has steadily won new customers in recent years, the recurring revenue generated from these customers is growing slowly, and the market has consistently taken shape more slowly than we expected We do not see any signs of accelerating the commercial ramp-up in development during the first half of the year, which is why we are approaching our growth estimates more cautiously than before.

The slowdown in income financing that we have forecast increases financing uncertainty. We estimate that the current funding will be sufficient until H1'27. The financing situation in the coming years will be significantly affected by the potential signing of a 20 MEUR loan agreement with the European Investment Bank. Further information on the status of the letter of intent is expected no later than in connection with the H1 report at the end of August.

Probability of a negative scenario has increased

Aiforia has a strong position in the slowly developing digital pathology market. Due to the company's early stage of development, visibility into future developments is low. In a negative scenario, there is a significant risk of losing invested capital, and correspondingly, in a positive scenario, we see the possibility of remarkably good share returns. The slowness of growth increases the probability and weight of a negative scenario in our research and renders our assessment of the risk/reward ratio unsatisfactory. In our baseline scenario, the DCF cash flow model yields a share value of EUR 1.3, suggesting that the stock is fully priced. The EV/S revenue multiples for the coming years remain very high and require achieving a rapid growth trajectory.